Overall crypto market – technical + sentiment

Market structure

Total market cap ≈ $3.1–3.2T, slightly up ~0.5% in the last 24h – so technically still in a big uptrend but currently in sideways / corrective phase after the recent push above $100k BTC.

BTC ≈ $90k and has been chopping around this level for several days after failing to hold above 100k. Daily candles show lower highs since the peak = short-term downtrend inside a long-term uptrend.

BTC dominance ~57–59% – still high. That means BTC is leading; it’s not full altcoin season.

Altcoin Season Index ≈ very low (around 19) → confirms altcoins underperforming BTC in the last 90 days.

Sentiment

Crypto Fear & Greed Index ≈ 21–22 = “Extreme Fear”.

News headlines talk about a fragile setup around 90k and recent sharp drops below 90k as investors de-risked.

What this combo means:

Price is still high in the macro bull market, but short-term:

Momentum has cooled.

Retail is scared.

Altcoins are bleeding harder than BTC

This is classic mid-cycle correction / shakeout behavior:
good for patient spot buyers, dangerous for over-leveraged futures.

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2. Reading your “role”

From your screenshots, your list is basically:

Core majors: BTC, ETH, XRP, BNB, SOL, TRX, ADA

Infra / blue-chip altcoins: LINK, ATOM, NEAR, APT, SUI, HBAR, RENDER, AKT, CELO, KAS, STRK, GRT

Narrative coins: ONDO, CFG (RWA); S, W, GT (exchange / DeFi infra); VIRTUAL, OM, XION, QUBIC, GFI, RVN, BTT (higher-beta / more speculative).

Most of them are red 24h, with a few small greens (ONDO, RENDER, S, maybe GT) – that’s typical when dominance is high and money is defensive.

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3. Spot strategy – what makes sense today

I’ll split it by category.

3.1 Core majors (BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, BNB, TRX, ADA)

Trend:

Still macro bullish on weekly charts, but daily shows pullback / consolidation after big 2024–2025 runs.

BTC around 90k is roughly 10–15% below recent highs, ETH also below recent local high, SOL/XRP cooled after strong rallies.

How to trade spot:

1. Use staged buying, not all-in.

Example logic (you can adjust to PHP values):

Buy 25% of intended BTC / ETH amount now (extreme fear area).

Set limit orders 5–10% lower for another 25–50%.

Keep 25–50% cash in case of deeper flush.

2. Focus on BTC + ETH as “engine room.”

They benefit most from institutional flows (ETFs, futures, custody, regulations).

In a fearful, BTC-dominant market, they tend to fall less and recover first.

3. SOL / XRP / BNB as high-beta satellites.

Good for swing trades: buy when daily RSI resets toward oversold and price reclaims key moving averages (e.g., 21 or 50-day EMA).

Take partials on 20–30% pumps, don’t marry them.

4. ADA, TRX – treat as secondary:

Smaller allocations. Use them when charts clearly break out; otherwise, let the stronger trends (SOL/XRP/LINK/ONDO etc.) carry more weight.

3.2 Infra & narrative blue-chips (LINK, ATOM, NEAR, APT, SUI, HBAR, RENDER, AKT, CELO, KAS, STRK, GRT, ONDO, CFG)

These tie directly to current and 2026 narratives: L1/L2 scaling, AI, DePin, RWAs, oracles.

General view:

Most of these had massive runs in 2024–2025 (e.g., LINK, SOL/NEAR class, RENDER, AKT) and are now in corrective stages, with lower highs on the daily but still >2023 levels.

RWAs (ONDO, CFG) and AI/depin (RENDER, AKT) still have strong fundamental road maps going into 2026 – tokenization, AI infra, bandwidth/compute markets, etc.

Spot approach:

Keep them as longer-term swing holds, not intraday trades.

Size smaller than BTC/ETH. For example, if BTC+ETH = 50–60% of your spot stack, this block = 25–35%.

Focus on:

LINK, ONDO, RENDER, NEAR, AKT as the “A-tier” narrative coins.

Entry rule of thumb: wait for:

Daily close above 21-day EMA after a pullback and

Volume rising vs prior days (sign of dip being bought).

Take profit in layers:

First TP at +30–40% from entry.

Second TP at prior local high / resistance.

Let small remainder ride 2026 narrative.

3.3 High-risk / small caps (QUBIC, OM, XION, GFI, BTT, RVN, VIRTUAL, S, W, etc.)

These are the first to get wrecked in corrections and last to recover.

In an extreme fear, BTC-dominant market, treat them like lotto tickets.

Spot rules:

Total allocation to this bucket ≤ 5–10% of your crypto stack.

Never average down aggressively; if a coin dumps −40–60% and fundamentals are unclear, it’s often better to cut and rotate to stronger names.

Only add when:

BTC is stable/strong again and

That particular coin has clear news / upgrades / listings (not just “it’s cheap now”).

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4. Futures strategy – how to approach today

Given the current setup (fragile uptrend, extreme fear), the main goal is survival + harvesting volatility, not hero trades.

4.1 What NOT to do

No high leverage (avoid >5x; 2–3x is already aggressive).

No big short on random alt where liquidity is thin – liquidation risk is huge.

Do not open many correlated positions (e.g., SOL/NEAR/SUI/ATOM longs at the same time).

4.2 If you want to LONG via futures

Market view: BTC is in a large uptrend but at a mid-cycle wobble. Many times historically, these “extreme fear” phases near previous highs ended up being decent medium-term long entries, but timing is tricky.

Safer long setups:

1. BTC / ETH only.

Wait for clear support confirmation, e.g.:

Price wicks below 4h support and closes back inside the range.

Funding rates reset or turn slightly negative (no overcrowded long side).

Use 2–3x leverage, stop-loss below recent swing low (e.g., a few percent).

2. “Bounce scalp” on strong alts (SOL, LINK, ONDO, RENDER, NEAR):

Only when BTC is green and stable.

Entry on reclaim of 4h resistance/EMA with rising volume.

Tight stop; TP quickly at 5–10% move on the coin (which can be 15–30% using 3x).

4.3 If you want to SHORT via futures

Shorting in a bull-market correction can be profitable but dangerous; you’re trading against the higher-time-frame trend.

Short setups that make sense in this environment:

Dead-cat bounces on weak alts:

Coins from your speculative bucket that pump 20–30% intraday without real news while BTC is flat or red.

Short with stop slightly above the spike high, target back toward the pre-pump level.

BTC range short:

If 90–92k area clearly rejects with wicks and declining volume, you can:

Short around range high.

Use small leverage (2x).

Stop above the range; TP in the mid/lower range.

But if BTC breaks out with strong volume, flip bias or exit – don’t hold stubborn shorts in a macro bull.

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5. Time-frame plan (how I’d combine spot + futures)

Here’s a simple template you can overlay on your portfolio:

Spot “investment” layer (months to years)

60–70% of your total crypto capital.

BTC: 35–40%

ETH: 15–20%

Mix of SOL / XRP / LINK / ONDO / RENDER / NEAR / AKT / others: 20–25%

High-risk small caps: max 5–10%

Approach: DCA + buy on fear, sell only when:

Narratives break, or

We get blow-off tops (parabolic weekly candles + extreme greed).

Futures “trading” layer (days to weeks)

30–40% of your total crypto capital at most – and you don’t have to use all margin.

Focus on BTC & ETH for main trades.

Use alts sparingly, preferably those with deep liquidity (SOL, LINK, ONDO on major exchanges).

Have clear rules:

Max 2–3 open positions.

Max risk per trade: 1–2% of trading capital.

Hard stops always in place.