When will China’s next upward cycle of national fortune begin? And how long will it last?

This is not fortune-telling, but rather an attempt to find the “potentially historically chosen window” by analyzing historical patterns, structural conditions, and current realities.

My prediction (combining current realities and structural variables) is:

The next upward cycle of China’s national fortune could start as early as 2026-2027,
with the real takeoff occurring between 2028-2030,
and, if all goes well, it could last until around 2040.

Why this prediction? (Core variable analysis)

1. The shift from demographic dividend to talent dividend (2025-2030 is the window): Previously driven by “abundant labor,” now it must rely on “high-quality human capital.”

2. Global industrial chain restructuring gives China an opportunity for “repositioning.” The US-led “de-Sinicization” is effective in the short term, but will inevitably face limits in the medium to long term. If China can reshape its supply chain role with “import substitution + green transformation + AI manufacturing” as leverage, it will become the next growth engine.

3. The “hard realization period” for technological directions will be around 2030. The current phase of large models, computing power, AI manufacturing, and new energy is still in the “narrative phase,” similar to how the internet in China went from storytelling in 2000 to widespread adoption in 2010.

4. China-US relations will form a “stable new equilibrium” around 2030. The current period is one of confrontation, but it won’t be endless; if China can form a “de-dollarization alliance” with ASEAN, the Middle East, and Latin America, it will greatly boost confidence in sovereign finance.

In summary:

China’s next cycle of national fortune is likely to:
Start in 2026-2028, grow in 2030-2035, and peak in 2036-2040.
Its foundation will no longer be real estate, demographic dividend, or low-end manufacturing, but rather:
High-end manufacturing + technology implementation + digital governance + order reconstruction + the rise of a new middle class.