#美联储重启降息步伐 The Fed's decision tonight may be far more than just a numbers game.

The market is fixated on the 25 basis point rate cut, but the real bombshell is hidden in the balance sheet. On December 1, the Fed officially announced the end of the quantitative tightening (QT) cycle, with bank reserves dropping to historical lows for the tightening period. As a result, the overnight financing rate SOFR has repeatedly broken through the policy rate ceiling—in simple terms, the financial system is starting to run short on cash.

Here’s the key question—will the Fed officially launch the Reserve Management Purchase (RMP) framework tonight? If announced, it would mean shifting directly from "balance sheet reduction" to "modest expansion", a process that could last until early 2026.

The scale is a big unknown. Conservative analysts estimate monthly purchases of $35 billion in short-term Treasuries, with an annual increase of over $400 billion. But some are more aggressive, arguing that $45 billion a month is needed to truly fill the reserve gap.

This isn't just central bank number-crunching—it's a signal that liquidity is flowing back into the financial system. Once the balance sheet starts expanding, the market will feel a direct pulse—triggering a chain reaction in asset valuation logic. Compared to the rate cut itself, this shift could have even deeper implications.