Prediction markets are pricing in a 95% chance the Fed drops rates by 25 basis points this Wednesday. The consensus is pretty much locked in at this point—traders aren't even hedging the other way. FOMC week always moves markets, and this one's looking like a done deal before Powell even opens his mouth.
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POAPlectionist
· 9h ago
95% of the probability can be so certain, so how much can the remaining 5% of black swans be beaten?
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BlockchainWorker
· 9h ago
The 95% probability is a foregone conclusion, and this wave of Powell lay flat before the market spoke, which is really outrageous
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rugged_again
· 9h ago
95% probability? Okay, then I'll bet the other 5%, anyway, I'll have to be cut off in my life
Prediction markets are pricing in a 95% chance the Fed drops rates by 25 basis points this Wednesday. The consensus is pretty much locked in at this point—traders aren't even hedging the other way. FOMC week always moves markets, and this one's looking like a done deal before Powell even opens his mouth.