$BTC is only one step away from $100,000, can $ETH stand on 4,000? The answer will be revealed tonight!

At 3 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision. The market has long guessed the script: the third rate cut by 25 basis points, and the interest rate dropped to 3.5%-3.75%.

But don't be happy too early.

This rate cut is not simple - there is already a lot of noise within the Fed. One group is worried about the rise in unemployment and insists on continuing to release water; The other faction warns that inflation has not yet been suppressed, and feels that something will happen if it is loosened. So there is a new word: "hawkish interest rate cuts". What do you mean? It is a drop, but it implies that you "this may be the last time".

What will Powell say? **

The post-meeting statement and Powell's press conference are the highlights. Goldman Sachs predicts that the statement may be changed back to that ambiguous wording - "the magnitude and timing of further adjustments depends on the data." Translated: Don't expect to drop next time.

**Does internal voting fry? **

There may be multiple negative votes in this vote. The Kansas City Fed voted against it last month, and this time it is estimated that it is still; St. Louis Fed's Musalem may also jump out against it, citing the persistence of inflation. What's even more dramatic is that director Milan may have come the other way - asking for a 50 basis point cut and continuing to sing dovish.

What should I do if I fight with data? **

Core PCE inflation fell to 2.8% in September, which sounds good, but it is still far from the 2% target. At the same time, the October employment data began to pull the crotch: less hiring and more layoffs. While inflation cannot come down, employment is cool, and the Fed is caught in the middle.

**And a hidden plot:**

In addition to interest rates, the Fed may resume bond purchases. Although the scale is not large, it is not "quantitative easing", but in October it just said that it would stop shrinking its balance sheet, and now it is going to buy bonds again? The financial pressure on the market is indeed great.

The recent rebound in the crypto market is largely a bet on the Fed's pivot. If Powell releases a dovish signal tonight, BTC breaking 100,000 and ETH above 4,000 is not a dream. But if you give a hint of a "hawkish rate cut", be careful of short-term pullbacks.