#美联储联邦公开市场委员会决议 $1000LUNC

The Federal Reserve's final "big test" lands at 3 a.m., with an 89% bet on a 25 basis point rate cut—this meeting directly impacts BTC's trajectory, the rhythm of the US stock market, and the tightening or loosening of global liquidity.

CME Fed Funds Futures data shows: an 89.4% probability of a 25 basis point cut. Once implemented, this will be the third consecutive rate cut this year, pushing the federal funds rate range to 3.5%-3.75%. But honestly, whether they cut or not is no longer the main issue—the key is the "hawkish rate cut" sword hanging over us. The Fed just finished balance sheet reduction on December 1, and there are even signals of restarting balance sheet expansion in January, with monthly purchases of 40-45 billion in short-term government bonds. These liquidity changes directly undermine our confidence in holdings.

The real points to watch are two hidden factors:

**First**, will the dot plot eliminate the expectation of rate cuts next year? If it hints at a lower frequency of rate cuts, the entire global asset valuation logic could reverse—requiring a recalculation of the valuation basis for stocks and cryptocurrencies.

**Second**, will Powell make strong remarks during the press conference? For example, raising the bar for future rate cuts. Once such statements are made, the market is likely to react strongly in the short term. More painfully, internal dissent within the Fed has surfaced, and there could be opposition votes during the decision. Some even advocate for a radical 50 basis point cut—this kind of bullish-bearish standoff could trigger increased market volatility.

For the crypto world, rate cuts are just surface-level; hawkish signals are the hidden mines. If Powell cements a "tightening credit" stance, even if the balance sheet expands, there could be a dip followed by a rebound. Conversely, if he signals softness, liquidity expectations could loosen, and BTC might surge again.

What do you think? Is a hawkish rate cut certain this time, or will Powell quietly pivot? Should we adjust positions early to avoid risk, or bet on a reversal after the meeting?