The central bank's decision looms this week. Market consensus? An 88% probability points to a 25-basis-point cut.

Employment figures are cooling down. Inflation remains relatively anchored. These factors build the rationale for easing. Yet behind closed doors, policymakers seem split on what comes next.

The real question isn't whether rates drop now—it's about the signal. Will they hint at hitting pause after this move? That uncertainty is what traders are actually watching. Not just the cut itself, but the language around future policy trajectory.

Labor market slack combined with price stability creates textbook conditions for accommodation. But divided opinions among officials suggest the path forward is anything but clear-cut.