Polymarket traders are betting heavy on a rate cut today – we're talking 98% probability here. The Fed's decision is dropping soon, and if you're positioned in risk assets, this one matters.

What's the play? Watch how crypto reacts in the first hour. Rate cuts typically juice liquidity, but the devil's in Powell's language. Hawkish cut? Expect volatility. Dovish tone with hints of more cuts ahead? That's when alts might rip.

The prediction market has spoken with near certainty, but markets don't trade on certainty – they trade on surprise. If that 2% scenario hits, or if forward guidance disappoints, we could see sharp moves either way.

Key things on my radar: BTC's reaction at the announcement, DeFi token sensitivity to rate expectations, and whether institutional money flows accelerate into crypto as traditional yields compress further. This isn't just a Fed day – it's a liquidity sentiment check for the entire risk curve.