The Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate cut is completely within expectations.



Summary of Powell’s speech:
1. This round of rate cuts has ended, and there will be a pause afterward, similar to the three rate cuts at the end of 2024.
2. The entire rate-cut cycle has not ended; at least no one is considering a rate hike.
3. Looking at non-farm payrolls, the real data is roughly around -20,000 per month. Due to statistical and modeling reasons, non-farm payrolls do not truly reflect reality.
4. Buying short-term bonds is to ensure sufficient liquidity, thereby maintaining interest rates.

The above is objective information.
Subjective impression: Not very hawkish, somewhat more dovish than I expected. Mainly, the start of short-term bond purchases is considered a relatively dovish move. It also basically confirms that the possibility of further rate cuts during his term is quite low. The market has already priced in expectations until June next year. Hasseit replacing Powell, and the number of rate cuts increasing in the second half of next year.
This also means that in the medium to short term, no clear direction has been given. Short-term liquidity entry remains uncertain, and the next 2-3 months of market performance are expected to be very difficult.
View Original
post-image
This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
  • Reward
  • 1
  • Repost
  • Share
Comment
0/400
SailorSambavip
· 12-13 15:39
Currently, there is widespread wailing outside, believing we have entered a bear market, but I hope that, as you said, the first quarter of 26 can bring a good outcome.
View OriginalReply0
  • Pin
Trade Crypto Anywhere Anytime
qrCode
Scan to download Gate App
Community
  • 简体中文
  • English
  • Tiếng Việt
  • 繁體中文
  • Español
  • Русский
  • Français (Afrique)
  • Português (Portugal)
  • Bahasa Indonesia
  • 日本語
  • بالعربية
  • Українська
  • Português (Brasil)