After reviewing the latest data, the median interest rate in 2026 remains at 3.375%, with an average around 3.29%—almost identical to the September forecast. Want to cut to 3.125%? Not a chance.

The report contains two intriguing details:

First, one committee member's expectations are wildly off, projecting 2.125% for 2026, then raising it again for 2027. This move suggests either concern about a hard landing next year or simply loyalty to the team... Everyone in the know understands.

Second, there’s a change in the macroeconomic forecast. The December outlook is much more optimistic than in September, with GDP raised by 0.5 percentage points. In other words, the Fed is confident about next year's economic trajectory.

Connecting these points makes it clear: despite the upward revision in GDP expectations, the plan to cut interest rates 1 to 2 times next year remains unchanged. Essentially, the FOMC is signaling to the market—that inflation pressures in 2026 are manageable and don’t require aggressive monetary tightening.

From a risk appetite perspective, this is a positive signal. As for what happens next, it depends on what Powell says going forward.