#美联储降息 Macroeconomic expectations are shifting, and on-chain funds are accumulating quietly.

A recent interesting signal is that overseas institutions are gradually establishing expectations for a rate cut in 2026—anticipating a 25 basis point reduction in March and June respectively. It sounds far off, but the market usually starts pricing in 3-6 months in advance.

The key issue here: certain hard indicators of inflation—rent, wages, energy costs—once they show signs of softening, the stance of central banks will rapidly shift. Economic data may still look sustainable on the surface, but underlying structures are changing.

On-chain funding metrics better illustrate the situation. BTC in the $25,000-$30,000 range shows that large funds are quietly accumulating. Exchange reserves have returned to early 2018 levels, which means what? Liquidity is tightening, and the proportion of long-term holders is increasing. I've seen this rhythm too many times—before each macro expectation shift, smart money quietly builds positions like this.

From the second half of 2024 to 2025, the crypto market may experience a "expectation-led" rally. The key is not to chase after rate cuts once they actually occur, as most of the alpha will have already been eaten up by then. The real opportunity lies in the expectations of a liquidity turning point.

If you believe in cycles too, you should understand what to do now: hold your core positions and buy the dips gradually. Stand firm before the wind arrives—this is the moment to wait for. $ETH