Last weekend, a piece of news spread within the circle: the supply of rare earths in a certain East Asian country has started to become uncertain.

Let's look at the data first. This country imports nearly 70% of its rare earth oxides from a major power—its motor, automotive, robotics, and even sensitive military industrial chains all rely on this supply line. Now, the approval process has been extended, compliance thresholds raised. Although no one is saying "embargo," companies are already feeling the pressure.

Interestingly, this move is quite restrained. It doesn't cut off supply completely but gradually tightens the valve—preserving room for negotiation while clearly signaling its stance. Concurrently, there are small military maneuvers: near the Ryukyu Islands, radar lock by fighter jets; no fire was exchanged, but this tactical warning signal is already quite clear.

Short-term effects? Some small and medium manufacturers dependent on rare earths may face soaring costs or delivery delays. In the long run, affected parties will definitely seek alternatives—recycling technologies, Australian mines, Southeast Asian supply chains—all are being actively developed.

But the core issue isn't mining itself; it's the downstream processes. Purification, separation, high-end material manufacturing—these links are the real moats. Even if massive investments start now, fully eliminating dependence will take at least 5 to 10 years.

Supply chain games have never been just about trade wars. For those of us concerned with macro risks, the story of rare earths reminds us of one thing: resource pricing power can sometimes be more deadly than computing power and liquidity.