#美联储降息 【$BTC Bitcoin 2025-12-11 11:12】

The divergence has finally been resolved, and the next steps are now quite clear.

The blue line is currently following a combined corrective wave, labeled as a triple three structure WXYXZ. It is basically nearing completion. But this is just the beginning— the blue line will evolve into a higher-level combined corrective wave (double three), which is currently just the sub-W wave; it will also include sub-X and sub-Y waves later.

However, there is another wave count possibility. Wave A might be a less standard leading wedge, in which case Wave B is likely a zigzag correction wave. But this requires Wave C to form a more vigorous 5-wave impulsive wave than Wave A to be valid. Given the current macro environment, a 5-wave impulsive wave may not form, and it’s more likely to see a combined corrective wave. So, conservatively, we expect a combined correction wave first. If Wave C unexpectedly breaks out with a strong 5-wave impulsive move, we will immediately revise our judgment.

The key point is: as long as the red line (sub-W X wave) doesn’t develop into an expanding flat correction, it won’t break new lows. Honestly, the probability of an expanding flat correction occurring at this position is extremely low. I’ve studied many similar cases and have never seen it happen. So, the chance of new lows? Just ignore it.

In daily analysis, I focus on wave theory and Gann theory—these are my analytical notes. Details like timing, position, and movement trajectories are in the pinned post.

--- "Wave Theory and Gann Theory Notes"
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