The rate cut almost cost me my life.

As I get older, staying up all night watching the markets leaves me completely exhausted the next day. This time, I closed all my long positions during the 15-minute divergence at dawn, as the divergence on the hourly chart was too obvious.

I also followed up with short positions—actually, the ones near the secondary high point I mentioned yesterday could have been done then. Looking back now, that judgment was quite accurate.

Flipping back, from the 21st of last month to the 11th of this month, although I chased some gains and lost twice, the overall framework hasn't deviated much, right?

The most satisfying part of this round is trading the Ethereum exchange rate. Many people haven't tried this method—buying spot at low levels with Bitcoin, then using leverage to go long on Ethereum via perpetual contracts. When the trend is correct, it yields double the profit—sweet.

Moreover, based on the resistance zone of 36-37 in the exchange rate, it's reasonable for Ethereum to move to 34-35. The key is that, structurally, it looks like sideways consolidation moving upward, but the momentum is clearly insufficient. Aside from Ethereum being a bit more resilient, the other two tend to panic at resistance levels.

I'm preparing to hold my short positions and wait for a higher high to see if a lower low will form. But I lean more towards testing 80,000 again before the end of the year—that is, in late mid-month—so I can buy the dip. After that, a big rebound might occur, with a large wave B structure on the weekly chart, reaching between 108,000 and 110,000. Within a month after the new year, there's still a chance to hit that range.

Of course, don't take it too seriously. Until a double confirmation of the bottom structure appears, everything is just speculation.