December 11th, the big wipeout that shook the industry two months ago is still fresh in our minds. There are only a few days left in the year. Who still firmly believes that a raging bull market will come?

Look at this recent wave of intense volatility — both bulls and bears are being wiped out, yet the liquidation volume is only a bit over 500 million USD. What does this number signify? There are fewer and fewer players in the market with real money.

Interestingly, when the price drops to this level, it should be a good opportunity to bottom fish, right? But retail investors are collectively pretending to be dead. Where have all those shouts of "go all in" gone?

My simple judgment is: this cycle may not have a traditional bull market. After several rounds of harvesting, most retail investors have seen through the game rules. Project teams hype up empty promises, institutions cut their wrists, data is falsified... This routine has been played too many times, and people can't be fooled anymore.

Market participation is shrinking, trading volume is sluggish, liquidation scales are decreasing — these signals all point to the same thing: trust has collapsed. When retail investors collectively wake up, choose to wait and see or even exit, who can sustain the so-called "bull market"?