Options are always in the hands of the market, not the big players. If investing were really that simple, the market makers would have closed shop long ago.

**Be careful not to fall into the "same chart pattern across the entire network" thinking trap**

It sounds very tempting: breaking through 6.6 trillion balance is a good sign, so you should jump in immediately.

But there's a big trap here.

The market's favorite trick is "sell when you hear good news." The rapid surge at the moment of data release is often not the starting point, but the point of distribution. In other words, that most beautiful candlestick could very well be the last move by the big players to shake out retail investors.

Another fact to consider: the figures on the balance sheet ≠ actual liquidity injection. Sometimes it looks like an increase, but in reality, it's just "left pocket to right pocket" borrowing and repaying. Plus, with the recent trend of the crypto market developing a more independent rhythm, the influence of macro data is continuously diminishing. So, the real trend might look like this:

No matter what the data shows tonight, a high probability is that we'll see a "bull-bear feast" rally first, shaking out those with high leverage at the top, before heading for the true direction.

**My response manual: How to play three different scenarios**

*Scenario 1: Data exceeds expectations, breaks through 6.6 trillion*

The most common reaction is a strong rally. But don’t be fooled—check whether this upward movement is supported by genuine volume, as it could just be a fake-out.

Key action: If the price truly stabilizes above the previous high, don’t chase it. Instead, sell in stages, wait for a pullback before considering buying again. Keep an eye on U.S. bond yields; if yields don’t fall along with the price, be cautious—this might be a sign that the "good news" has already been fully priced in.

*Scenario 2: Data meets expectations, in the 6.5-6.6 trillion range*

In this case, the market tends to be the most volatile. Whipsawing up and down, with large fluctuations, but no clear direction.

The smart move: place buy orders 5% above support levels and sell orders 5% below resistance, capturing profits within this oscillation. Be mentally prepared—this kind of market tests patience the most. If you're not confident, just sit back, enjoy the show, and don’t force trades.

*Scenario 3: Data is hawkish, below 6.5 trillion*

Panic selling will definitely appear, but this often creates the "golden pit." However, there's a rule: never take the first shot. Wait until you see a long lower shadow on the daily chart, or clear divergence signals on technicals before considering a bottom.

A tip: pay attention to the relative performance of ETH and BTC, as Ethereum’s recent technical upgrades may boost its resilience. If Ethereum outperforms Bitcoin significantly, it indicates market sentiment is still intact, and the rebound potential could be greater.

Final words: Investing is never just about straightforward long or short judgments, but about finding probabilistic advantages amid uncertainty. These three scenarios list the most common pitfalls—hope it helps you avoid some of the traps this time.