2026-01-02 16:21:13

Recently, AAII's bearish sentiment index dropped to 27%, a low not seen since October of last year. Even more interesting is that the bearish ratio has fallen below 30% for the first time in over thirty years.

Looking back at the historical records, whenever such extreme bearish sentiment dissipates and the ratio falls below 30%, it often signals the end of a bear market. Based on past experience, this kind of turning point usually becomes evident within the following 6 to 12 months, and entering the second year, the market often continues this wave of positive returns.

Of course, while historical patterns are somewhat indicative, each cycle must also be analyzed in conjunction with the current macro environment, policy landscape, and technical factors. However, from an emotional perspective, this signal is indeed worth paying attention to.

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potentially_notable

· 01-03 19:35

Oh no, this data is really incredible. First time breaking 30 in thirty years? That's pretty intense. Wait, can we directly apply historical patterns? It feels like the current macro environment is completely different now. This kind of signal has appeared many times before. Is there ever a time when we miss out? A cycle of six to twelve months, it seems like we have to endure another wave. Can a bottom in sentiment turn things around? I doubt it, it also depends on whether real money is entering the market. Is this break above 30 really a turning point, or is it just another fake move? Anyway, we have to wait half a year to see the outcome. Might as well not worry about it today.

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ImpermanentPhilosopher

· 01-02 16:48

Wow, 27%! This really is a bottom signal, haven't seen it in 30 years. History is always surprisingly similar, but could this be another trap... Wait, isn't this data lagging? It has already rebounded now. Whatever, I've already gone all in anyway, just lying flat and waiting for 6 to 12 months. This extreme pessimism is often the best buying point. Those who understand, understand.

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GateUser-5854de8b

· 01-02 16:31

27%？ Is this really different this time, or are you just fooling me into bottom fishing? Will history repeat itself, everyone? It feels like every cycle says the bear market is over. 6 to 12 months? I can't wait that long, brothers. 30%—this threshold has been broken for the first time in thirty years. Sounds awesome, but it still feels a bit fake. The policy and technical aspects are the real factors; looking at the sentiment index alone seems a bit too optimistic. Could this be another false signal? I've been fooled too many times already.

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GigaBrainAnon

· 01-02 16:21

27%？ Damn, this data is really outrageous, breaking 30 for the first time in thirty years... Historical patterns are like making money in crypto, sounds great Will history repeat itself? Anyway, I don’t believe it Haha but this time is different, right? The Fed bunch is still pretending to sleep Wait, 6 to 12 months? Why do I feel like I’ve heard this kind of talk several times before Looks like I’ll have to wait another year to see the results, forget it, I’ll keep hodling When will the market come? Compared to the emotional side, I want to see the candlestick chart speak

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