Many people ask me about expectations for 2026.

Actually, this set of judgments is now just about clarifying the logic further.
Here's the conclusion in one sentence:
Overall, 2026 will be better than 2025, but the pace will be extremely uneven, a typical “front-loaded then rebound” pattern.
1. Q1–Q2 Early: The toughest period (January–April)
The key word during this time is only one:
‍#川普 vs Powell
Core timeline
January: #美联储 almost impossible to move interest rates
March: FOMC meeting + dot plot, very strong political signals
April: #鲍威尔 last full FOMC meeting
May 15: Powell officially steps down
June: New chair presides over the first meeting
👉 The closer we get to May, the greater the market volatility, as funds start betting early on the “new chair era.”
My judgment:
Before the March FOMC meeting, Trump will definitely announce his choice for the next Federal Reserve Chair.
Even if rates are not cut in March, the dot plot alone is enough to create disagreement, and some officials may even “take sides” early.
Tariffs are the biggest variable during this period.
Trump’s real risk is not Powell, but whether tariffs are rejected by the Supreme Court.
Once rejected (or partially rejected):
It’s a blow to Trump’s personal reputation.
But it’s a positive for risk assets (inflation pressure decreases).
And if Trump still wants to secure the midterm elections, he will definitely counterattack the market, though the form is unknown.
My specific predictions for this stage:
A️⃣ Tariffs will be rejected or partially rejected
B️⃣ Trump’s support rate will temporarily dip
C️⃣ S&P 500 will experience about 3% volatility due to tariffs
D️⃣ Bitcoin volatility will expand to about 5%
E️⃣ Before June, less than half of Fed voters will support Trump
F️⃣ Powell will oppose easy rate cuts before stepping down
G️⃣ The government is unlikely to shut down before January 30, but will only pass short-term CR
H️⃣ Japan will raise interest rates at least once before June
2. Q2–Q3: The window with real opportunity (June–September)
This is what I believe is the most promising period for bullish positions in 2026.
The reason is simple:
👉 This is Trump’s last “market rescue” opportunity before the midterm elections.
If:
Support rates don’t rise
Markets remain dull
He will likely lose one chamber of Congress (the House of Representatives being the biggest risk).
And this, in turn, will push him to release stronger stimulus signals.
Judgments for this stage:
If tariff resistance continues → inflation pressure eases
The probability of a “second inflation” scare by the Fed decreases
The new chair’s style shifts toward easing expectations
My predictions:
A️⃣ Nasdaq & S&P reach new highs
B️⃣ Gold experiences a temporary correction
C️⃣ Dot plot clearly leans dovish
D️⃣ Crypto market experiences a small rally
E️⃣ The new Fed chair signals easing
3. Q4 + Midterm Elections: Sentiment and liquidity resonance (October–year-end)
After October, the market will start to tighten again—
Not because of the economy, but due to political uncertainty.
But historical experience tells us one thing:
👉 Midterm elections are inherently liquidity events.
Regardless of the outcome, both parties’ competition will boost risk appetite.
My judgments for this stage:
A️⃣ Republicans are likely to lose the House
B️⃣ Russia-Ukraine conflict ends
C️⃣ No larger-scale global war erupts
D️⃣ US avoids recession
E️⃣ US stocks & crypto will see the last rally of the year
F️⃣ The number of rate cuts this year will exceed current market expectations
In summary:
2026 > 2025
Liquidity will not return to 2021 levels
But “easing expectations” will be enough to significantly boost risk appetite
The biggest risk is not the economy, but the political uncertainty caused by Trump’s declining support rate.
As for trading strategies:
A classic saying:
Survive the first half, opportunities come in the second half.