Recently, the Bitcoin market has shown signs of a bullish trend, and a key set of data can explain the situation—according to Amberdata statistics, in the Deribit exchange, the price of put options for Bitcoin has consistently been more expensive than call options, and this premium will continue until September 2026. This indicates that many traders have already started to position themselves in advance, preparing for potential downside risks next year.

Several core variables also influence Bitcoin's price movement. First is the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. The actions of the Fed in 2026 may be more aggressive, with Nomura Securities predicting that they are likely to cut interest rates twice next June and September. Second, whether Bitcoin "large buyers," represented by MicroStrategy, will continue to increase their holdings, and whether U.S. cryptocurrency regulatory policies can be further clarified, will have a significant impact on the price.

The dynamics of the Japanese market are also worth paying attention to. By early 2025, the number of Bitcoin accounts in Japan had exceeded 12 million, a 3.5-fold increase compared to five years ago. Even more surprisingly, Japan's Financial Services Agency is studying the possibility of allowing banks to hold and trade Bitcoin, marking a major shift from the conservative regulatory stance established in 2020.

For market participants in 2026, three key areas to focus on are: the impact of Federal Reserve policies, whether Bitcoin can truly decouple from traditional assets, and changes in the regulatory environment. The crypto market is never short of surprises, but the real investment opportunities often lie within these fluctuations. $BTC #ETH走势分析