Recent changes in the situation in Venezuela have led many to re-examine the impact of geopolitics on crypto assets. Unlike the performance of other financial assets, Bitcoin has unexpectedly risen against the trend this time. What is really behind this?

Let's start with the strategic considerations of the United States. U.S. involvement in Latin American affairs has a long history, but the deeper goal of this action is to reshape the global supply chain. Post-pandemic, countries are promoting localization and regionalization of supply chains. The U.S. aims to bring key resources within its sphere of influence. The "Anti-American Triangle" formed by Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua has always been a thorn in America's side. Venezuela's most valuable resource is oil; controlling this wealth allows the U.S. to strengthen its own oil refining capacity and further constrain OPEC+ influence.

Interestingly, such geopolitical conflicts often push oil prices down. Why? Expectations on the supply side increase, leading the market to believe oil will be more abundant, which naturally puts downward pressure on prices. Since the beginning of 2025, the relationship between crude oil and Bitcoin has reversed — they shifted from being positively correlated to negatively correlated, with the latest correlation coefficient dropping to -0.34. Falling oil prices mean lower production costs and reduced profit pressures for companies, indirectly boosting the appeal of risk assets. More importantly, traders are betting that the Federal Reserve will delay rate cuts, with market expectations now suggesting the first cut might be pushed back to mid-2026. This is positive for high-leverage assets like Bitcoin.

There is also a deeper paradox to understand here. Traditional investment theory considers Bitcoin a high-risk asset, but under tense geopolitical situations, its performance resembles that of gold — people see it as a safe haven. Why? Because unilateral political actions weaken the purity of the dollar as a settlement currency, prompting some funds to seek assets that are less dependent on single-country political decisions. Bitcoin’s decentralization, at this moment, becomes an advantage in its competitive edge.