#以太坊生态发展 Seeing this forecast, my mind flashes back to the wave of 2017. Back then, everyone was speculating about Ethereum's future, but the path to reality turned out to be much more winding than imagined.

The assertion that TVL will grow tenfold by 2026 is actually based on the combination of several forces—$500 billion in stablecoins, $300 billion in RWA tokenization, and large-scale participation from sovereign wealth funds. I have to admit, this framework is more pragmatic than previous rounds.

Over the past few years, stablecoins have indeed been bridging the last mile of real-world applications on-chain. From USDT's dominance to the influx of competitors like USDC and PYUSD, and now the approaching digital currencies of various central banks, this path is no longer a fantasy. RWA is even more interesting—from initial attempts like "on-chain property certificates" to now traditional financial giants like JPMorgan and BlackRock actively participating, the quality is in a completely different league.

But we need to stay clear-headed. Historically, each major prediction like this has only materialized to about 1/3 to 1/2 of the expectation. When Bitcoin broke $1,000 in 2013, some said it would reach $100,000, but it took eight years. Growth will happen, but the pace often exceeds expectations. More importantly, the true winners are not necessarily the projects that shout the loudest, but those that quietly build the essential infrastructure.

The involvement of sovereign wealth funds indeed changes the game—this is no longer a retail frenzy but the entry of institutional capital. This means volatility will be managed, and cycles will be extended. For those who have seen several bull and bear markets, this is both an opportunity and a reminder.