#比特币价格预测与走势 Seeing Bitwise's judgment, what flashed through my mind was the scene from 2017. At that time, everyone was shouting "tenfold, hundredfold," but the harsh winter of 2018 caused many to be deeply trapped. Now Hougan's statement of "steady progress over ten years" sounds much more rational, but it also precisely indicates one thing—the market is maturing.

The all-time high of $125,100 has already been written into history, and this height alone is very telling. Looking back at the cycles of 2013 and 2017, each peak kept being refreshed, but the rate of increase was gradually slowing down. From a certain perspective, this is not a recession but rather a healthy market evolution process.

Those retail investors who exited early are actually repeating history. They are being hijacked by the "four-year cycle" curse, but they fail to realize that the cycle itself is also evolving. The prediction that 2026 will be a year of rising prices is less about sophisticated technical analysis and more about acknowledging that—Bitcoin has entered the era of institutional investors, volatility will decrease, but the overall tone will be more stable.

Strong but not extreme returns—this phrase sounds a bit dull, but it is precisely a sign that an asset is evolving from a speculative product into a portfolio asset. I have experienced too many stories of "this time is different," and now I am more inclined to trust those predictions that sound the most boring.