Speaking of Bitcoin's "four-year cycle," everyone has a template in mind: a crazy surge after halving, reaching a peak, then an 80%+ correction leading into a bear market. So what happens after the 2025 halving? There’s no textbook-like parabolic rise, no brutal crash. Instead, it oscillates at high levels, with the bottom continuously being repaired. This reveals a signal — Bitcoin is shifting from a speculative-driven mode to a stable growth pattern, and the old bear market script may really be outdated.

Why is this happening? Four key reasons are at play.

**Institutions and spot ETFs are completely changing the game.** In 2025, inflows alone will exceed $23 billion, and in 2026, another $15-40 billion is expected. The numbers may seem modest, but the implications are huge — these funds mainly come from long-term holders like pension funds and sovereign wealth funds, not leverage traders. Institutional share has already surpassed 40%. Think about it — these funds are mostly buying spot ETFs, with daily supply increases accounting for only 0.8% of trading volume. The daily ETF inflow can absorb this, breaking the old chain of "supply shock → rapid rise → big correction."

**Real control lies in macro liquidity.** Don’t underestimate this — Bitcoin’s correlation with global M2 and the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet exceeds 0.78, far higher than the influence of halving events themselves. The Fed’s rate cuts in 2025 and the end of QT, along with continued easing (QE expectations remain), support the upward trend of risk assets. In simple terms, the four-year cycle is essentially a product of political cycles and liquidity overlay; now, the liquidity environment has extended this cycle to about five years.

**Policy and regulatory environments are also easing.** Legislation like the GENIUS Act is being implemented, regulatory frameworks are becoming clearer, attracting more institutions to enter. The US is promoting strategic Bitcoin reserves and shifting policies toward pro-crypto stances, gradually transforming Bitcoin from a purely speculative asset into a macro hedge.

**Market structure has matured, and volatility is becoming more stable.** Retail participation is declining, with institutions holding long-term positions. On-chain data shows long-term holders are net accumulating, and exchange balances are decreasing, indicating that the forces of FOMO-driven surges and panic selling are weakening. Cycles will still exist, but they won’t be the extreme, destructive booms and busts of the past.