#当前行情抄底还是观望？ From a technical perspective, both BTC and ETH have shown clear short-term reversal signals, breaking the previous one-sided downtrend pattern. However, the medium- to long-term bearish trend has not yet fully reversed. The core signals across different cycles are as follows, allowing for precise capture of the rebound rhythm:

Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis
Daily Chart: Yesterday closed with a long lower shadow bullish candle, forming a "Golden Needle Bottom" reversal signal. Today, the rebound continues, with the price breaking above the 5-day moving average ($68,000) resistance. The MACD indicator's green bars are beginning to shrink, showing signs of a golden cross. The RSI has rebounded from around 25 to 40, exiting the oversold zone but still remaining in a weak zone. The rebound strength needs further validation.
4-Hour Chart: Moving averages are showing signs of turning, with the price breaking above the 10-day and 20-day moving averages. The Bollinger Bands are starting to narrow, with the price rebounding from the lower band toward the middle band. The KDJ indicator has formed a golden cross and continues upward, indicating increasing bullish momentum. However, resistance near the middle band ($72,000) should be watched.
1-Hour Chart: During the rebound, volume continues to increase, and the price steadily moves up along the 5-day moving average. Short-term support is at $68,000 (around the 5-day MA), and resistance is at the $71,500-$72,000 zone (yesterday’s high + previous consolidation range). If the price breaks through resistance, the rebound may further extend.
Today’s Contract Trading Strategy
Core Principle: The current market is in a “rebound correction” phase. Short-term bullish momentum is strong, but the medium- to long-term bearish trend has not yet reversed. Contract trading should focus on “buying on dips” with “shorting at high levels,” strictly avoiding blindly chasing longs, and carefully controlling position sizes and stop-losses!
Bitcoin (BTC) Contract Long Strategy: Enter long positions on dips around $68,000-$69,000, with a stop-loss at $67,000 (below the 5-day moving average, confirming the correction). Target $71,000-$71,500. If the price breaks above $71,500, consider reducing positions and holding, with a target near $72,000 (not chasing longs, only positioning after dips).
Short Position Strategy: Enter short positions on rebounds to the $71,500-$72,000 zone, with a stop-loss at $73,000 (above the previous high, confirming the continuation of the rebound). Target $70,000-$70,500. Take profits when the market looks good, avoid fighting the trend, and prevent losses from a sustained rebound.
The current market is a “oversold rebound,” not a reversal. During the rebound, a pullback and consolidation are highly likely. All strategies must strictly follow the risk management rules below, or they risk being stopped out by a correction:
Position Control: No more than 8% of total funds in a single coin contract, and no more than 12% across multiple coins. High leverage is strictly prohibited (recommended leverage no more than 3x). During rebounds, excessive leverage can lead to rapid losses if a correction occurs.
Stop-Loss Execution: All positions must have stop-loss orders. Long positions’ stops should not be below key support levels; short positions’ stops should not be above key resistance levels. Stop-loss levels should not be arbitrarily modified. Once triggered, exit immediately—no holding through losses or adding to positions (as corrections can be large).
Psychological Control: Avoid “blindly chasing longs.” The market has not fully reversed yet; there is still a risk of a pullback after the rebound. Do not add positions at high levels to avoid getting trapped at the top. Maintain a cautious attitude—prefer short-term arbitrage, lock in profits, and avoid greed.
Key Levels to Watch Today (Rebound Critical Support/Resistance) BTC: Support at $68,000 (5-day MA support, key pullback level), Resistance at $71,500-$72,000 (short-term rebound resistance, higher difficulty to break).
Market Outlook: In the short term, bullish momentum remains, and the rebound is likely to continue. However, watch out for high-level pullback risks. BTC may consolidate below key resistance levels, gradually digesting previous selling pressure. The rebound strength will weaken over time, making it difficult to quickly recover previous losses.
In the medium term, if expectations of a Fed policy shift cool down further, US stocks continue to rebound, and funds flow back into BTC spot ETFs, the crypto market could see a phased rebound. BTC may rise to $75,000-$80,000, and ETH to $2,200-$2,300. If the rebound fails to break key resistance or macroeconomic negative news re-emerges, the market will revert to a downtrend, with BTC potentially dropping back toward $60,000 support.
Core Reminder: The current market remains highly volatile and risky. Contract trading must prioritize risk control. Avoid blindly following the trend or overleveraging. Closely monitor key levels today and adjust trading strategies flexibly.
Important Risk Warnings
1. Cryptocurrency contract trading is high-risk investment behavior. Leverage amplifies both gains and losses. The strategies in this article are for market analysis only and do not constitute investment advice. Operate at your own risk.
2. The current rebound is an oversold correction, not a reversal. Significant pullbacks may occur during the rebound. Do not blindly chase longs or use high leverage to avoid large liquidations. Protect your principal as the top priority.
3. Keep a close eye on US stock movements, Federal Reserve policy developments, Iran-US nuclear negotiations, and ETF fund flows. Any sudden news can cause sharp market fluctuations. Adjust trading strategies promptly and respond flexibly.