#当前行情抄底还是观望？ A Night of Terror! Bitcoin falls below 69,000, 117,000 traders liquidated with 2.3 billion yuan, is the bear market really here?

Friends, Happy New Year’s Eve!
Today is February 16, 2026, the 29th day of the lunar December. It should be a day for family reunion, but the crypto world is staging a “Night of Terror.”
Last night, Bitcoin once again plunged sharply, briefly falling below $69,000, Ethereum plummeted nearly 6%, over 117,000 traders were liquidated across the network, and $331 million (about 2.3 billion RMB) evaporated instantly!

📰In-Depth Analysis of Today’s News
1. Fed Rate Cut Expectations Rapidly Diminish The most significant news last night was the reversal of expectations for a Fed rate cut. According to CME’s “FedWatch” tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points by March is only 9.8%, while the chance of holding rates steady is as high as 90.2%. This is a sharp decline from the previous forecast of 19.6%, indicating renewed market concerns about tightening liquidity. The main reason: US January CPI rose 2.4 year-over-year, hitting a new low since May 2025, but core CPI remains above the Fed’s 2% target. Bloomberg Economics estimates that the core PCE price index for December increased by 0.3% month-over-month, pushing the year-over-year rate to 2.9%, showing inflation warming at the end of the year.
2. Geopolitical Risks Surge
According to Xinhua News Agency citing US media reports, US President Trump reportedly told Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu that if the US cannot reach an agreement with Iran, he would support Israel’s airstrikes on Iran’s ballistic missile facilities. This news heightened market risk aversion, causing funds to flow out of high-risk cryptocurrencies and into traditional safe-haven assets like gold.
3. Large Outflows from Bitcoin ETF Funds US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds experienced a $686 million outflow after two days of trading frenzy, with a single redemption of $410.4 million, up from $276.3 million the previous day. Specifically: IBIT saw outflows of about $157.6 million
Fidelity FBTC outflows of about $104.1 million
GBTC and other trusts combined outflows of about $92.6 million
Continuous withdrawal of institutional funds has put enormous pressure on the market, which is one of the core drivers of this round of decline. 4. Regulatory Framework Imminent SEC Chairman Paul Atkins stated at a Senate hearing this week that a federal cryptocurrency regulatory framework “should have been introduced long ago.” While this news is a long-term positive for industry compliance, it may increase short-term market uncertainty.

📊Bitcoin Price Prediction for Today
Current Data
As of press time, Bitcoin’s latest price is approximately $68,894.51, down 1.32% in 24 hours, with a high of $70,000 within the last 24 hours before falling back. Year-to-date, it has fallen over 23%, retreating about 45%-50% from the peak of $126,000 set in October 2025.

Technical Analysis
Key Levels:
Support: Short-term key support is at $68,600, which is an important recent support level; if broken, it may test around $66,000 again. Stronger support below is at $65,000, which was the support level in October 2025.
Resistance: Short-term resistance is at $70,000, a strong psychological barrier; a breakout could target $72,000. Major resistance above is at $74,400-$75,000.

Technical Indicators: The 4-hour chart shows support around $68,600, with strong resistance at $70,000. The daily chart remains in a bearish alignment, with MACD lines below zero. RSI on the daily is at 44, indicating a bearish zone, with very limited short-term rebound momentum.

Today’s Price Outlook
Bitcoin is currently trading within a narrow range of $68,600-$70,000, facing strong resistance at the 200-day moving average. In the short term, bulls and bears are in fierce battle, and the market is waiting for new directional signals.
Optimistic Scenario: If Bitcoin can break through and hold above $70,000, a new rally could begin, targeting $72,500.
Pessimistic Scenario: If it falls below support at $68,600, it may test $66,000 or lower. Institutional forecasts suggest there is an 82% chance that Bitcoin will drop below $65,000 this year.