Bloomberg Strategist: Crypto Market Decline Could Signal the Start of a "Deflationary Domino," Iran Situation May Trigger Recession in the US

Gate News reports that on March 9, Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodities strategist Mike McGlone posted on X analyzing the current market situation. He stated that the market is discussing whether the Iran situation could potentially trigger the next U.S. recession. Currently, U.S. stock valuations are at historic highs, with the 180-day volatility of the Nasdaq 100 approaching lows not seen since 2018. If future volatility significantly increases, it could confirm his view of a market turning point.

McGlone believes that the recent decline in cryptocurrencies may just be the beginning of a “post-inflationary deflationary domino effect.” The crypto market previously experienced excessive gains and increased supply, so a price correction to some extent is a correction of overbought conditions. Regarding oil, recent sharp price increases often clear out short positions, stimulate supply, and may trigger global recession risks. The high volatility in precious metals and energy markets could gradually transmit to the stock market.

He predicts that after Bitcoin in 2024 and gold in 2025, U.S. Treasuries may become the main asset for excess returns in 2026. However, if Bitcoin stabilizes at $74,000, copper rises to $6, silver reaches $100, the S&P 500 hits 7,000 points, the Dow reaches 50,000 points, and U.S. Treasury yields rise above 5%, then his current outlook could be invalidated.