#创作者冲榜 Today's Hot Topics: Bitcoin Bottom May Be Anchored at $46,000-$54,000, Analysts Warn of Deeper Bear Market Amid Macro Shift

1 Bitcoin Bottom May Be Anchored at $46,000-$54,000
On-chain analyst Willy Woo pointed out that traditional on-chain models indicate Bitcoin’s potential bottom is between $46,000 and $54,000. The CVDD bottom model he referenced currently values at $45,500, and Bitcoin network capital has been continuously flowing out since November last year. He warns that the model is based only on the past four bear markets (all occurring during a long-term bull market for global risk assets). If macro fundamentals collapse, the market could plunge into a deeper bear phase.

2 Wu Jiezhong Teams Up with Korean Lawmakers to Make Big Moves: Asia’s First Web3 Cross-Region Alliance Established—Will New Regulatory Rules Be Set?
Hong Kong legislator Wu Jiezhong and South Korean National Assembly members jointly launched Asia’s first cross-regional Web3 policy cooperation platform—the “Hong Kong–Korea Web3 Policy Promotion Alliance.” The alliance will focus on core areas such as digital asset regulation, stablecoin mechanisms, AI development, and blockchain infrastructure connectivity, promoting policy coordination and industry resource sharing between the two regions.

3 Short-term Bitcoin Holders Near 30% Unrealized Losses: MVRV Drops into Bear Market Alert?
CryptoQuant analyst noted that Bitcoin is currently fluctuating between $65,000 and $70,000, well below the short-term holders’ average cost basis of $85,900. The short-term holder MVRV indicator has fallen to 0.77, after briefly reaching 0.7 at the end of February, indicating that investors who entered within the past six months are on average unrealized losses of nearly 30%. This indicator in the bear market zone could further increase market volatility.

4 Should Cryptocurrencies Reshape the International Monetary System? China’s Dual-Drive Strategy Gains the Edge!
Professor Chen Jianqi from the Central Party School stated that cryptocurrencies have evolved from fringe innovations to a strategic focus for major powers, bringing new opportunities for the reconstruction of the international monetary system. China is implementing a “dual-drive” development strategy, leveraging Hong Kong to pilot stablecoins and connect with the international ecosystem, while advancing independent innovation through digital RMB.

5 48-Hour Ultimatum Repeatedly Reverses, Oil Market Risks Surge 4 Times More Than Stocks—Is Bitcoin Nervous?
Garrett Jin, agent of the “1011 Insider Whale,” issued a warning that although Trump’s ultimatum for Iran to pass through the Strait of Hormuz has been postponed twice, the geopolitical situation continues to escalate. The conflict could end diplomatic negotiations and increase the likelihood of prolonged war. Oil market volatility (OVX) has risen to 93, nearly four times the VIX ratio of stocks, indicating oil risks far exceed stock market pricing. Oil prices and market volatility may continue to rise.

6 Zhou Hongyi Reveals the Truth About Tokens: They Can Never Be Like Monthly Mobile Data Plans
Zhou Hongyi, founder of Qihoo 360, explained at the Global Unicorn Enterprise Conference during the “Lobster Fever” discussion that tokens will never be like unlimited monthly mobile data plans. He pointed out that traditional internet data has decreasing marginal costs as users grow, but AI operation fundamentally consumes computing power and intelligence costs. The more complex the task, the higher the resource consumption. As a measure of AI resources, tokens are proportional to usage and costs, making low-cost unlimited supply impossible.

7 US Cryptocurrency Regulation Could Change Dramatically: CLARITY Bill Stalls, Industry Faces Heavy Crackdown
Coin Center Executive Director warned that if the CLARITY bill fails to pass, the US government may tighten crypto regulations. The bill has been blocked in the Senate due to disagreements over key provisions like stablecoin yields. It includes protections for developers and registration requirements for intermediaries, which could legally constrain government actions. If legislation falls through, privacy tool developers might be classified as unregistered money transmitters, and existing lenient regulatory guidelines could be revoked, pushing the industry back into policy uncertainty.