#特朗普释放停战信号 Trump suddenly signals a ceasefire, the US dollar plunges, and these three major currency pairs will shake up the market!

Market Overview: The Collapse of the Dollar Sparks a New Round of Currency Wars April 1, 2026 — The global financial markets are experiencing a dramatic turn! Overnight, the US dollar index plummeted 0.6%, hitting a new low over a week at 99.88. This "flash crash" immediately ignited the non-dollar currency and precious metals markets. Spot gold surged 3.5%, silver soared 7%, while the oil market experienced a wild jump—WTI crude oil dropped 3%, Brent crude fell 5%!
Behind the heated battle between bulls and bears is the sudden signal of a ceasefire with Iran from Trump, resonating with the overall weakness of US economic data.
🚨 Major Event-Driven: Three "Black Swan" Events Rewrite Market Logic
1. Geopolitical Reversal: Trump declares "willing to end the war," Iranian president responds "ceasefire once demands are met," the Strait of Hormuz crisis shows signs of easing, but the Iranian Revolutionary Guard threatens to "target US tech companies in the Middle East starting April 1," leaving the situation with deadly uncertainties!
2. US Economic Alert: Job openings in February sharply decline, hiring slows significantly, gasoline prices break $4 per gallon, and stagflation risks resurface.
3. Federal Reserve Policy Anchor: CME data shows a 98.4% probability of holding interest rates steady in April, with expectations of rate cuts in June. US Treasury yields tumble across the board, with the 10-year yield dropping below 4.33%.
📊 Currency Pair Trend Analysis and Trading Strategies
1️⃣ EUR/USD: Bullish breakout, targeting 1.1650. Trend judgment: Clear uptrend (4-hour chart)
• Candlestick pattern: Bullish engulfing pattern formed, breaking through key resistance at 1.1550
• Technical signals: MA10/20/50 in bullish alignment, RSI out of overbought zone
• Drivers: Eurozone March manufacturing PMI final release upcoming, OPEC production hits post-pandemic lows supporting the euro
Trading suggestions:
• Enter long: 1.1560-1.1570
• Stop loss: 1.1530 (below recent consolidation range)
• Targets: 1.1620 (first target), 1.1650 (second target)
Risk appetite: Conservative investors can wait for a pullback to 1.1550 to confirm support. EUR/USD 4-hour chart
2️⃣ GBP/USD: Double bottom confirmed, bulls aiming for 1.3300. Trend judgment: Rebound upward trend (4-hour chart)
• Candlestick pattern: Double bottom near 1.3200, neckline broken at 1.3250
• Technical signals: MACD golden cross continues to expand, Bollinger upper band opening upward
• Drivers: UK March manufacturing PMI final expected to improve, trade data post-Brexit shows signs of recovery
Trading suggestions:
• Enter long: 1.3230-1.3240
• Stop loss: 1.3200 (below double bottom neckline)
• Targets: 1.3280 (first target), 1.3320 (second target)
Risk warning: If UK PMI falls below expectations, a correction to 1.3220 may occur.
3️⃣ USD/JPY: Double top pattern established, bearish target at 158.00. Trend judgment: Reversal from high to downtrend (4-hour chart)
• Candlestick pattern: Double top near 159.00, with shooting star signals
• Technical signals: RSI divergence at the top, breaking below 50 midline, MA50 support fails
• Drivers: Narrowing US-Japan interest rate differential, 10-year US Treasury yield drops below 4.33%
Trading suggestions:
• Enter short: 158.70-158.80
• Stop loss: 159.10 (above the double top high)
• Targets: 158.20 (first target), 157.80 (second target)
Aggressive strategy: Short after breaking 158.50, aiming for 158.00 round number.
4️⃣ AUD/USD: Bottoming reversal signal, watch for resistance at 0.6950. Trend judgment: Short-term rebound (4-hour chart)
• Candlestick pattern: Hammer near 0.6850, followed by three consecutive bullish candles
• Technical signals: MACD bullish crossover below zero, RSI rising from oversold
• Drivers: Reuters survey shows OPEC production at post-pandemic lows, boosting commodity currencies
Trading suggestions:
• Enter long: 0.6910-0.6920
• Stop loss: 0.6880 (below hammer low)
• Targets: 0.6940 (first target), 0.6970 (second target)
• Note: If WTI crude continues to fall, it may limit AUD gains.
5️⃣ USD/CAD: High-level consolidation with a bearish bias, oil drags on CAD. Trend judgment: Range-bound with potential correction (4-hour chart)
• Candlestick pattern: Shooting star above 1.3900, two consecutive bearish candles
• Technical signals: Bollinger bands narrowing, RSI pulling back from overbought
• Drivers: WTI crude plunges 3%, but the Bank of Canada minutes may lean hawkish
Trading suggestions:
• Mainly observe: Aggressive traders can short lightly at 1.3900-1.3910
• Stop loss: 1.3930 (recent high)
• Targets: 1.3870 (first target), 1.3850 (second target)
• Key data: Tonight at 22:30, EIA crude inventory report may trigger volatility.
6️⃣ NZD/USD: Oversold rebound, watch for resistance at 0.5750. Trend judgment: Short-term correction rebound (4-hour chart)
• Candlestick pattern: Morning star near 0.5700, initial rebound momentum
• Technical signals: MA10 and MA20 about to golden cross, KDJ low-level golden cross
• Drivers: New Zealand dairy prices stabilize, risk sentiment improves
Trading suggestions:
• Light long position: 0.5730-0.5740
• Stop loss: 0.5710 (below morning star low)
• Targets: 0.5760 (first target), 0.5780 (second target)
• Risk warning: NZD volatility is high; position size should not exceed 5% of account.
⚠ Risk Warning: The three "Gray Rhinos" should not be ignored
1. Iran situation fluctuations: Revolutionary Guard threatens to target US companies from April 1, geopolitical risks may resurface
2. US data "misses": Tonight at 20:15 ADP employment data, 20:30 retail sales data—if significantly below expectations, market volatility may spike
3. Oil market anomalies: If EIA inventory data shows large builds, WTI crude could break below $70/barrel, dragging down commodity currencies

💡 Risk warning: This analysis is based on publicly available market information and technical charts, for reference only, not investment advice. Markets are highly volatile; invest cautiously!