#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Will the Bitcoin surge if Iran and the US cease fire?

The world is truly a huge circus! Everyone has seen the latest news, and it’s all thanks to the “懂王” (the “Wise King” or “Smart King”)! Last night around 8 PM, he was still posting wildly, saying that Iran’s entire civilization would vanish tonight, implying serious action was imminent. At the same time, Iran cut off all diplomatic channels with the US, and both sides were exchanging harsh words. All these signs indicated that a major conflict could erupt at any moment. This tense atmosphere lasted until 1 AM. Coincidentally, just over an hour later, there was news of a breakthrough in negotiations, and by 8 AM this morning, both sides announced a two-week ceasefire. The Strait of Hormuz is open again, oil prices plummeted 20% overnight, and global risk assets turned green. Bitcoin rose $5,000, currently trading around $71,000 with volatility. Can we still chase longs at high levels?

The answer is: based on technical indicators, no:
1. This rally has reached the critical Fibonacci 0.618 level, and each previous time it hit this point, a short-term correction followed.
2. The $71,000 level is also the upper boundary of this trend’s resistance line.
3. The previous high during the last decline is nearby.
4. The four-hour RSI has again entered overbought territory.

All four technical indicators suggest varying degrees of downside risk, so combined, it’s a signal to avoid chasing high and consider bearish outlooks.

Let’s not even discuss whether “懂王” will issue more threatening statements about turning the ceasefire into a full-scale war with Iran during this half-month truce—only he knows what he’ll say. Instead, let’s focus on the upcoming CPI report, which is the key turning point. Although the war has temporarily paused, a series of chain reactions are unfolding, such as inflation, which could lead to a decisive outcome.

Market predictions carry some black swan risks. If inflation rebounds to high levels again, the Fed might turn hawkish collectively. The current strategy is: don’t rush to chase the ceasefire, watch the CPI, and stay above 72,000 before expecting a big breakout.

Before the CPI is released, short-term high-altitude trading is possible. For shorts, consider placing entries above 0.618 at around 72,000, with a stop-loss at yesterday’s high of 72,700 to play the downside. Look for a range of 2,000–3,000 points. This is one of Bitcoin’s favorite patterns—head and shoulders or W-bottom.

This is for reference only and not investment advice!