A more comprehensive macro framework for 2026:
#美元 liquidity is the true "anchor"
If the market in the past few years only focused on
#美联储 , then entering 2025–2026, a key change is: US dollar liquidity has shifted from a "quantity issue" to an "intermediation issue."
In other words, what the market lacks is not the dollar itself, but who is willing and able to truly release dollars.
1. US Dollar Liquidity ≠ Federal Reserve Balance Sheet
From an asset-liability perspective, dollars do not flow directly from the Federal Reserve to the market, but are mediated through the balance sheets of G-SI