Some friends might think that Bitcoin's rebound to around 79k has already ended, and there are quite a few who chased short positions during the early morning pullback.
In fact, from a structural perspective, it has not yet topped out, or at least it’s not that clear:
First, the formation of a top on the 4-hour and higher timeframes is a relatively long process, because the market is not absolute; we only discuss it probabilistically.
Rarely does a decline start immediately after hitting a single high point; more often, it appears as a tower top or multiple tops.
Second, the entire upw

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ChangyangBit

7h ago

The small pullback above 79k has completed, and the entry at the recent high point is still done ✅
Short-term trades have already taken profit; keeping the original viewpoint unchanged, if it tests around 8w again, it is still a relatively good opportunity to get in;
In the past few days, the risk-avoidance moves have been doing quite well. At the moment, there are no conditions for medium-term participation; it’s still about going long and taking short. This kind of “retreat by one, then re-enter by two” play could be the last shakeout before distribution.

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ChangyangBit

16h ago

Position holdings are starting to surge again, fees have returned to negative, and CVD is also rising. 📈Short covering continues steadily, taking small steps throughout the day with hardly any signs of a pullback...
However, compared to last week, the more obvious difference is that the speed is slowing down, which means market sentiment is gradually changing. The bears are not as extreme as in previous times and should have been scared by these past few days. 😅

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ChangyangBit

04-22 05:59

Price breaks above the cost upper band and holds steady, piercing through the short-term bearish pain points formed during the earlier push higher. After today’s quick rebound, a short-term accumulation vacuum zone has formed because of the two bullish K-lines above, roughly near 77.2/76.3k.
Additionally, Bitcoin has broken through 77k and eaten the order wall formed at yesterday’s high point. Now there’s hardly any remaining sell pressure. So when sell pressure is insufficient, strong demand will be provided here—both the holding point and the structural support should be shifted upward from

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ChangyangBit

04-22 03:19

As mentioned earlier:
This time, the bottom will form around 71k or 74k, but in the early morning, we didn't fully reach 74k, only dropping to around 747 before starting a new rebound, which was stronger than expected. So, the top pattern has not been established, let alone a deep correction;
At the current stage, in fact, yesterday's bears didn't gain much room, with a maximum of only 2,000 points. Following Trump's extreme pressure and the positive news for Taco, the price broke through 77k again, successfully breaking out of the head and shoulders pattern, ending the persistent negative

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ChangyangBit

04-21 08:20

Observing from the trend cost band:
At the start of the week, after breaking down and hitting a low below 74k, institutions stepped in to buy, absorb, and support. The end result was that it did not break below the absorption bottom line; instead, it was pulled along by the US stock market and began a rapid rebound—currently reaching the midline level;
In the short- and mid-term, there is a consistent distribution pattern. For BTC, the upper-to-middle range levels correspond to around 76.3/77.5k respectively, and the intraday price is capped to trade below the midline. Note that once it drops

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ChangyangBit

04-21 00:38

The 1-hour rebound target and the second entry point for the bears are synchronized and completed ✅
Perfectly predicted the small high point; a short-term break below 75k can confirm the formation of the right shoulder high point, thus initiating a new wave of correction targeting the previous low;
The overall logic is to look long and act short, with no opportunity for expansion during consolidation, hold and wait.

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ChangyangBit

04-20 04:23

【BTC】
First, the entire 4-hour rebound extension is most likely to have ended last week with 78k as the high point. Over the weekend, with lower liquidity, a 1-hour pullback occurred, and it again tested the previous horizontal support;
Up to now, the gains have been basically fully retraced. Previously, it was mentioned that the 73-74k range is an important support point for the main force, and after touching this price, a certain degree of rally may occur. Only if it breaks below can the trend be confirmed to turn bearish, as well as the official start of the 4-hour 📉.
Based on this situati

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ChangyangBit

04-20 01:35

Midline milestone target reached ✅
78-74k completed a full correction, and the price action here is very important! There is a rebound demand near the key point, but also note that in two days the US-Iran ceasefire agreement will expire, and recent uncertainties are quite high.
So, for this high-level short position on Bitcoin, everyone can handle it themselves; whether closed at a profit or loss, it's a great victory. No further tracking will be done on this order.

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ChangyangBit

04-20 01:16

Midline milestone target reached ✅
78-74k ran a complete correction here— the price action at this level is very important! There’s rebound demand near a key node, but also keep in mind that in two days it’s the expiration date of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement, and there are many near-term uncertainties..
So, for this high-level short on Bitcoin, everyone can handle it as they see fit. No matter whether it closes in profit or loss, it’s a complete win. Going forward, we will not track this order.

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ChangyangBit

04-16 05:57

【BTC】
Bitcoin has been fluctuating here for about two days, with the retracement not being large, and no further breakthrough has been made. Since breaking above the left shoulder, the top pattern has become unclear.
This morning's pullback filled the vacuum zone from the early morning secondary rebound, further solidifying the continuation of this segment. The last two days of this week should be viewed with a weakened bearish mindset;
Last night, I exited the short position in time. The higher the position, the more complex the intermediate changes are. The main point is that the selli

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ChangyangBit

04-15 15:11

The short-term neckline area hasn't been worn down, so the short position entered at 75.3k early this morning was exited early at 74k. The risk-reward ratio for continuing to gamble isn't favorable, and the bulls and bears are a bit out of balance, ready for a quick counterattack at any time.
Holding onto the position in this situation would be very passive; be a bit smarter... I'll analyze [傲慢] again later in the night.

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ChangyangBit

04-15 04:43

The trend cost band has already broken below the lower edge, but Bitcoin's short-term distribution cost band lower edge at 73k has not yet been broken. It needs to break further below this level before accumulation begins.
Additionally, as the price has been rising over the past few days, the stop-loss band at high levels has stacked up around 76.7k. Once enough short positions are accumulated here, a cleanup is highly likely, which can serve as a medium- to short-term target.
Summary: After breaking below 73k, it will attract main force to defend the market until the price pushes close to

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ChangyangBit

04-14 05:27

Short-term trends are easily driven by the rhythm of war, and in the early morning, a large short squeeze scene was triggered by rising holdings and extremely low negative fee rates, breaking through the distribution gap at 73.7k in one go (there may be gaps to fill here from the previous two times, this time the long-term main force directly bought in to push up and liquidate). The chain reaction pushed the price to the highest point in the past month.
Because long-term funds have carried out two consecutive consistent distributions, if there is no intervention from institutional funds in the

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LiderVitria:

This year is going to be incredibly amazing.

ChangyangBit

04-13 14:10

Last week on Strategy, bought 13,927 Bitcoin, spending about $1 billion, with an average price around 72k. This is also the fifth time this year that the purchase has exceeded 10,000 coins.
The old guy's total holdings reach as high as 780k coins, nearly 4% of the total market. Many still see Saylor as a crazy gambler, but Saylor is playing an extremely sophisticated enterprise-level arbitrage:
Using the liquidity premium of the U.S. stock market, continuously issuing bonds and new shares (printing his own currency) to drain a hard asset with an absolute fixed supply. Then he creates a “BTC Yi

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ChangyangBit

04-13 05:02

【BTC】
Bitcoin cleared previous high liquidity over the weekend and, combined with news sentiment, dumped the market, possibly forming a third relay pattern here. The adjustment strength will be much greater than the previous two times, at least the support level established last week on the 1-hour chart cannot hold.
Currently, the 69-73k range is highly divided, and a clear trend will only emerge if one side breaks through convincingly; otherwise, it remains volatile. Coupled with this volume contraction, the intraday upside potential is very limited, and there's no need to chase a rebound;
Th

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ChangyangBit

04-10 03:33

【BTC】
Since the volume breakout this week, it has been consolidating at a high level for about two days, leading to some subtle changes in the pattern, which can be generally divided into two phases of oscillation followed by an accelerated rebound, with the second phase showing a noticeably weaker momentum.
The small-scale structure projection may follow the attached diagram:
Currently, there are no good long opportunities in the short term, after all, from the day before yesterday when everyone bought the dip at 708 up to the high of 731, exceeding 2,000 points, which is enough for thi

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ChangyangBit

04-08 05:38

【BTC】
Bitcoin's current pattern is secondary; fundamentally, it is leveraging the ceasefire news to accelerate the liquidation of the 70,000 accumulated positions. After the initial surge, it will take some time to digest. The next resistance is the selling pressure from previous trapped positions, which has moved up to around 73-74k (the first rebound high since the daily downtrend). In the short term, a pullback below 71k should be prioritized for trading, while maintaining the expectation of a new high or second-high point. Do not rush to short.
The structure has basically completed the bul

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