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#我在Gate广场过新年 Crypto market alarm at maximum panic!
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index plummeted to 9, remaining in the extreme fear zone of 0-10 for 12 consecutive days, plunging the market into a deep panic abyss! On one side, retail investors are panic selling and getting liquidated across the network; on the other side, smart money is quietly accumulating, intensifying the battle between bulls and bears.
The countdown to Trump's tariff nuclear bomb continues, while Vitalik continues to dump, and mysterious whales are heavily long at $67,908—are we facing doomsday or the night before sudden wealth?
Institutions fleeing vs. whales accumulating:
On-chain data exposes lies
- Miner capitulation signals confirmed: Major mining company Bitdeer has completed extreme liquidation, with its own BTC holdings dropping to zero, selling all newly mined Bitcoin; the net selling volume of miners across the network reaches 2180 coins/day, the highest since October 2024, miners selling coins to pay electricity bills—are we at a historic bottom or a prelude to collapse?
- Contrarian whale attack: Address pension-usdt.eth reopens long positions, heavily betting on BTC rising at an average price of $67,908, with a single buy-in exceeding 1200 coins, equivalent to $815 million; adding to positions amid extreme panic—is this foresight or moths to the flame?
Policy nuclear bomb countdown: 24 hours
Trump officially signs the tariff upgrade order, with global import tariffs soaring from 10% to 15%, effective from 00:01 on February 24!
Expectations of tightening global liquidity heat up, US stock volatility jumps 32%, and the crypto market is unlikely to escape the impact.
The Middle East situation adds new variables, with fierce White House hawk-dove battles, rising geopolitical risk premiums, and the ultimate test for BTC as digital gold narrative.
On-chain dark battles: whales awakening, popular tokens crashing
- Solana whale activity: A dormant address for 5 months withdrew 50,000 SOL from exchanges and immediately staked them, with a market cap of about $10.8 million—big moves in the ecosystem coming?
- PUMP bloodbath: whales sold 3.75 billion PUMP tokens at an average price of $0.00214, losing $6.98 million; project team simultaneously sold 4.96 billion tokens, cashing out over $10.5 million, completely collapsing the fund.
- Vitalik continues to dump: sold 7,386 ETH this month, another 428.57 ETH today for 850,200 GHO, totaling about $15.51 million in realized gains, ETH support below is under severe pressure.
Data bombs: $70,000 becomes a graveyard for longs and shorts
- Liquidation storm warning: BTC holding steady at $70,000 will instantly trigger $791 million in short liquidations, epic short squeeze imminent; in the past 24 hours, total liquidations reached $84.459 million, with longs at $30.311 million and shorts at $54.147 million.
- Abnormal capital flow: In the past 7 days, exchanges net inflow of 3104 BTC and 5145 ETH, totaling $472 million—whales depositing coins in preparation—is this a dump or a pump?
- Downside risk warning: Quantitative models show a 73% probability that BTC will reach $55,000 within the year, indicating extreme market conditions are still ongoing.
Market glimmers: regulatory and ecological positive signals
- Ripple major statement: CEO states that the CLARITY Act has a 90% chance of passing Congress this week, and regulatory implementation could trigger XRP market rally.
- Aave V4 upgrade: V3 and V4 will run in parallel for a long time, with gradually relaxed limits, ushering in a new era for DeFi giants.

#我在Gate广场过新年 Why is this cycle so different?
Friends who entered the crypto market in 2017 know that at that time, the entire industry was full of hope and innovative vitality. People firmly believed that these blockchain networks could bring real solutions to the world.
Nine years later, it’s hard to assert that any major crypto ecosystem has truly achieved the sustainable mainstream utility promised back then.
This cycle has harvested countless participants, with most tokens showing almost no performance. More and more people are beginning to see the truth of the market: for the vast majority of crypto assets, it’s essentially a PVP game where participants rely on leverage, liquidations, and capital rotation to profit from others, rather than from the intrinsic value growth of the assets themselves.
Market selection rules have never failed: in the long run, most cryptocurrencies will eventually go to zero. Bitcoin, along with a few high-quality assets in the crypto space, still has a chance to break free from this fate and achieve real value breakthroughs.
Glory or Destruction: The Choice
Path to Glory
Bitcoin achieves a “breakout upgrade”: volatility significantly contracts, retracement levels are far below historical levels, and the previous high region becomes a solid structural support again. Although the cycle peak multiples have shrunk, the stability of the asset has greatly improved, risk-reward ratio is optimized, and it truly becomes a sustainable long-term investment.
Path to Destruction
The four-year cycle framework has completely failed. It’s not that Bitcoin itself is dying, but that the cycle logic maintained for years no longer holds. Volatility remains at historically high levels, but the potential for gains continues to shrink. The previous high no longer provides bottom support, and the growth channels of the past have become relics.
Bitcoin may still experience phased rallies in the future or continue to gain application adoption, but the once-reliable cycle pattern will no longer be the dominant market rule.
The Reset Path
A new demand-driven force emerges strongly, completely breaking the model of diminishing returns, and reshaping Bitcoin’s growth curve. This could come from large-scale structural capital allocation, widespread adoption by sovereign nations, or passive institutional buying forming long-term support.
Additional Hidden Risks: Long-term Protocol Layer Tests
This is not the core factor currently affecting the market, but it’s worth long-term attention: in the long run, Bitcoin must prove it can evolve at the protocol layer, especially with quantum resistance.
The core of the quantum issue concerns the security of Bitcoin ownership and protocol upgrade coordination, not mining itself.
The security of early Bitcoin holdings (like Satoshi’s stash) is the real potential threat.
If Bitcoin hopes to become a long-lasting asset, it must ultimately pass the “protocol upgrade without destroying market trust” test. This is like a background timer; it hasn’t triggered yet but remains an important hidden risk for Bitcoin’s long-term development.
Simple Judgement Criteria
If, after the shakeout, Bitcoin reclaims and stabilizes above $69,000: the cycle structure is preserved, and the path to glory remains highly possible.
If Bitcoin’s price stays between $55,000 and $69,000: the market is under maximum pressure, and the cycle model faces its final test.
If Bitcoin’s price remains below $55,000: under the weak cycle background of 1.8x peak multiples, structural breakdown may occur, and the market pattern is likely to undergo a fundamental shift.
Conclusion
Bitcoin cannot have both characteristics long-term: low-gain assets and high-retracement assets. If risk-adjusted returns still matter, these two cannot coexist permanently.
Currently, Bitcoin approaching $60,000 is a real-time test of this life-and-death boundary. Once the price falls below $50,000, all debates will end, and the market will deliver its final verdict—either moving toward glory or plunging into destruction.

SOL Technical Outlook: Solana Holding Above Macro Base After Losing 0.236
Solana remains in a sustained corrective downtrend after rejecting from the $160–$182 resistance cluster (0.5–0.618 Fibonacci zone).
The breakdown below 0.382 ($138) and later 0.236 ($111) confirmed structural weakness, accelerating the decline toward macro support.
Price is now consolidating near $84–$90, just above the macro Fibonacci 0 level at $67.14, forming a short-term base after a sharp selloff.
This is a critical decision zone for SOL’s next major move.
EMA Structure (Strong Bearish Alignment)
20 EMA: $90.72
50 EMA: $106.77
100 EMA: $124.25
200 EMA: $142.90
SOL is trading below all major EMAs, confirming strong bearish alignment across all timeframes.
The $90–$107 zone (20 & 50 EMA cluster) now acts as immediate dynamic resistance.
Broader structural resistance remains between $124–$143 (100 & 200 EMA).
Any upside move into these areas is likely corrective unless reclaimed with strong momentum and daily acceptance.
Fibonacci & Price Structure
0.786 Fib: $213.60
0.618 Fib: $182.29
0.5 Fib: $160.31
0.382 Fib: $138.32
0.236 Fib: $111.11
Fib 0 (Macro Base): $67.14
SOL failed to sustain above the 0.382–0.5 region, then decisively broke below 0.236, confirming continuation of the bearish structure.
Current consolidation around $84–$90 suggests temporary absorption of sell pressure.
A breakdown below $84 would expose SOL to the $67 macro base, while holding this zone could allow a relief bounce toward $90–$107 resistance.
RSI Momentum
RSI (14) is currently around 37, indicating weak but stabilizing momentum.
RSI remains below the 50 equilibrium level, meaning the broader trend is still corrective rather than a confirmed bullish reversal.
📊 Key Levels
Resistance
$90–$107 (20 & 50 EMA cluster)
$111 (0.236 Fib)
$138 (0.382 Fib)
$160 (0.5 Fib)
Support
$84–$85 (local consolidation demand)
$67 (macro base / Fib 0)
RSI: 37 — weak / stabilizing
📌 Summary
Solana is consolidating above macro support after a sharp corrective breakdown.
While downside momentum has slowed near $84, the broader structure remains bearish below $111–$124.
A sustained recovery requires SOL to reclaim $111 (0.236) and stabilize above the EMA cluster.
Failure to hold above $84 would likely trigger continuation toward the $67 macro base.
$SOL ‌#SOLStandsStrong