A Critical Moment After a Year of Surge
2025 is shaping up to be a harvest year for the euro. From an early-year level of 1.04 USD, it climbed to 1.19 USD in September, an increase of over 13%. As of November, EUR/USD stabilized at around 1.16. This performance breaks the trend of euro depreciation over the past decade, but questions remain: can this upward momentum continue into 2026 and 2027?
To answer this, we need to weigh several conflicting forces. On one hand, the interest rate policies of the US and European central banks provide a solid foundation for the euro. On the other hand, Europe's political risks, energy cost disadvantages, and the US economy's better-than-expected performance cast shadows over the euro's outlook.
Technical Analysis: Key Support Levels Indicate Downside Risks
From a chart perspective, EUR/USD currently faces two important defenses. Looking downward, 1.1550 and 1.1470 are the main support levels.