LiquidityWitch

【BiTu】The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut actions are indeed taking effect. The ICE BofA MOVE index, which measures bond market volatility, has fallen to the level of 59, hitting a new low since October 2024. Even more astonishing, this index has declined from 99 at the end of the year, and is on track to record the largest annual decline since data began in 1988—second only to the sharp plunge during the 2009 financial crisis.
In other words, the tension in the bond market is noticeably easing. As the risk of recession is effectively alleviated, investors' expected volatility in the bond market has significantly decreased, and the overall market rhythm has also calmed considerably. This stability may not necessarily be bad news for risk assets.

The capital flow of US spot ETFs shows a large-scale net outflow from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, while Solana ETF has an opposite net inflow, reflecting the market's continued interest in Solana and position adjustments for Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Telcoin Digital Asset Bank officially launches blockchain banking services in Nebraska, USA, and introduces the eUSD stablecoin, with plans to offer comprehensive on-chain financial services by early 2026. This marks the integration of traditional finance with blockchain, pushing blockchain banking gradually towards reality.

In recent years, the popularity of NFTs has declined, with major trading activities concentrated on leading platforms. Traders are shifting towards meme coins with low fees and quick settlements, especially projects on Solana. Short-term speculation is prevalent, and investors are more inclined to pursue a fast and flexible market, while the patience to hold NFTs is gradually being abandoned.

【Crypto World】The cryptocurrency market is undergoing a major transformation. Projects that were once sustained by stories and hype now have to prove their true capabilities.
Tokens like XRP and ADA, although they have a large fan base, face a question — how active are they on the chain? The data is clear: XRP has only about 16,700 active addresses, and Cardano has over 19,000. Compared to true top players like Solana, the gap is obvious.
What does this mean? Simply put, community enthusiasm and on-chain usage are severely disconnected. Having more supporters is meaningless if no one is actually using the chain, and there are no real transactions and activities to support it — it’s just an empty shell.
The logic behind future token valuation is changing. It’s no longer about who’s marketing is better or who has a more compelling story, but about hard metrics: revenue, usage, and ecosystem activity. Just like evaluating a traditional company.

【币界】预测市场这块最近动静挺大的。Polymarket 和 Kalshi 这两个平台在 2025 年表现抢眼，年度交易量合起来接近 400 亿美元。能达到这个量级，说明用户对这类产品的需求确实在增长。更有意思的是，两家平台的估值都已经冲到了数十亿美元级别，这在预测市场赛道还挺罕见的。从市场热度看，预测市场从小众走向主流的趋势越来越明显了。

XRP has been rising steadily recently, with the price reaching $1.86 and a 24-hour increase of 1.7%. However, trading volume has decreased by 37%, totaling only $1.06 billion, reflecting insufficient liquidity during the holiday period. Industry experts believe that the market's capacity for expansion in the coming years, along with the performance of stablecoins and payment applications, will be key growth factors.

A senior trader pointed out that Lighter's token generation event (TGE) will become a key indicator for assessing market risk appetite. The market's reaction to the initial 25% token will reflect participants' true attitudes and influence the overall market trend.

A major holder just sold 27.2 million AR tokens, cashing out approximately $1.2 million, causing the AR price to drop below $0.04 at one point, with a 24-hour decline of 10.2%. This indicates limited market absorption capacity.

Trust Wallet recently updated its browser extension, enhancing the ability to identify stolen wallets and prompting users to migrate to new wallets in a timely manner. The official faces complexities in compensation and needs to filter genuine victims. A total of 2,630 claim requests have been received, with amounts ranging from $1.05 million to $3.5 million. The customer support team is accelerating processing and hiring additional staff.

An execution layer vulnerability event occurred on the Flow chain, resulting in approximately $3.9 million worth of assets being transferred out, but user balances were unaffected. The Flow Foundation quickly released a fix and rolled back the network, clearing unauthorized transfer records, demonstrating an efficient emergency response mechanism.

【Blockchain Rhythm】Last week, despite the arrival of the Christmas holiday, precious metals experienced a series of spectacular market movements. Gold, silver, and platinum continuously hit record highs. Spot gold reached a high of nearly $4,550 per ounce on Friday, continuing the streak of record-breaking levels since the beginning of the year, with a cumulative increase of over 70%. Silver's performance was even more aggressive—surging over 10% in a single day on Friday, breaking through the integer threshold and surpassing $79 per ounce.
What is behind this frenzy in safe-haven assets? The rising risk aversion sentiment and the anticipation of interest rate cuts resonated as the core factors supporting the continued rise of precious metals.
Next, there are three key economic data points to watch: Tuesday at 3:00 AM, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its latest monetary policy meeting, which usually signals market direction; Wednesday at 21:30, the US initial jobless claims will be announced, reflecting the health of the labor market; Friday at 22:45, the US December manufacturing PMI

【Crypto World】Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko recently shared some thoughts on 2026 on social media, which are quite interesting. He believes there will be major movements in stablecoins, with a scale breakthrough of over $1 trillion already a certainty. This can be seen from the explosion of DeFi last year—both institutions and retail investors are pouring money into stablecoins.
Additionally, he has a relatively rational attitude towards quantum computing and controlled nuclear fusion, thinking that these two technologies will remain largely unchanged by 2026, with a low short-term probability of real-world implementation. This shows he has a clear understanding of the timeline for technological progress.
What's even more interesting is his strong optimism about AI. He predicts that AI will solve a problem that has puzzled humanity for thousands of years by 2026. Although he didn't specify which problem, it sends a powerful signal—that AI development is beginning to touch on deep-seated issues.
In terms of hard technology, he also mentioned humanoid robots.

Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson believes that Solana's development has surpassed Ethereum, mainly due to its excellent transaction processing capabilities and rapidly growing tokenized stock value. Despite Ethereum's solid DeFi ecosystem position, Solana's performance in the high-speed blockchain race is worth watching, and future competition will depend on ecosystem development and innovation capabilities.