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#CryptoMarketWatch
Bitcoin is trading in a weakened position near $78,000–$79,000 USD, reflecting a notable decline from recent highs. This move highlights growing caution across the market, with BTC facing sustained selling pressure amid broader uncertainty and reduced risk appetite.
Price Structure Shows Lower Highs and Lower Lows
Bitcoin’s price action is forming a clear bearish structure, characterized by consecutive lower highs and lower lows on the daily timeframe. This pattern confirms seller dominance, as recovery attempts have repeatedly failed to break above key resistance zones.
Moving Averages Reinforce Bearish Bias
Bitcoin remains below its major moving averages:
20-day moving average acting as immediate resistance
50-day moving average limiting short-term upside
200-day moving average serving as a critical long-term trend marker
Trading below these averages signals continued bearish control unless price reclaims them with strong volume confirmation.
RSI Reflects Weak Momentum
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the neutral 50 level, indicating fading bullish momentum. While not deeply oversold yet, the RSI trend suggests downside pressure may persist before any meaningful recovery takes shape.
MACD Confirms Downward Momentum
The MACD indicator stays in negative territory, with the MACD line below the signal line. Histogram bars continue to show bearish momentum, reinforcing the idea that sellers remain in control in the short term.
Bollinger Bands Signal Increased Volatility
Bitcoin is trading near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating elevated selling pressure and expanding volatility. Widening bands suggest that price swings may remain sharp as the market searches for equilibrium.
Fibonacci Levels Under Pressure
Bitcoin has retraced below key Fibonacci retracement levels, placing focus on deeper support zones. Failure to hold these levels could expose price to further downside, while stabilization here may lead to consolidation.
Stochastic RSI Near Oversold Territory
The Stochastic RSI is approaching oversold conditions, signaling that selling pressure is becoming stretched. However, without a confirmed bullish crossover, this remains a cautionary signal rather than a reversal confirmation.
Volume Analysis Shows Seller Dominance
Recent downward moves have been supported by higher selling volume, while recovery attempts lacked strong buying participation. This imbalance highlights weak buyer conviction and reinforces the prevailing bearish trend.
Key Support and Resistance Zones
Support:
Current zone around $78,000–$79,000
Lower demand areas if selling pressure increases
Resistance:
Short-term resistance near the 20-day and 50-day moving averages
Major resistance at the 200-day moving average
Price reaction at these levels will be critical in determining the next directional move.
Short-Term vs Long-Term Outlook
In the short term, Bitcoin remains vulnerable to further downside or sideways consolidation. A sustainable recovery would require RSI strength, MACD convergence, increased volume, and price reclaiming key moving averages. Long-term trend structure remains under observation as major supports are tested.
Conclusion: Technical Indicators Favor Caution
Overall, #CryptoMarketWatch shows that Bitcoin’s price action and technical indicators currently favor a bearish to cautious outlook. With BTC trading near the $78k–$79k range, traders and investors are advised to prioritize risk management and wait for clear confirmation signals before expecting a trend reversal.

#FedKeepsRatesUnchanged
The Federal Reserve has decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50–3.75%, pausing after three rate cuts in 2025 that were designed to support economic growth, encourage borrowing, and stabilize the job market. Throughout 2025, the Fed gradually reduced rates to make loans, mortgages, and business credit more affordable, stimulate spending and investment, and provide liquidity amid inflationary pressures and global uncertainties. By maintaining the current rate, the Fed signals caution, as inflation remains slightly above its 2% target at around 2.7–2.8%, while GDP growth and employment remain resilient. This neutral stance ensures borrowing costs for consumers and businesses remain stable and reflects a careful balance between supporting economic growth and preventing further inflation.
The decision has had immediate effects across multiple markets. Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced short-term gains of 2–5%, while high-liquidity altcoins rose 3–7% following BTC trends. Gold jumped approximately 4% and silver rose 3–5% as investors sought safe-haven assets amid uncertainty. Stock markets showed minor volatility, fluctuating ±1–2%, while bond yields moved between 3.6–3.8%, reflecting investor expectations about future rate actions. The Fed’s decision also maintains liquidity stability for banks and businesses, keeping lending conditions neutral and ensuring financial systems remain balanced.
Economically, this pause indicates that the Fed is carefully monitoring inflation trends, employment data, and global risks before making further adjustments. While future rate cuts remain possible if inflation continues to cool, the current stance emphasizes stability across both traditional and digital asset markets. Consumers, investors, and traders can expect moderate price movements, stable borrowing costs, and cautious market behavior across cryptocurrencies, commodities like gold and silver, stocks, and bonds. The Federal Reserve’s approach demonstrates a measured, data-driven strategy aimed at sustaining economic growth while controlling inflationary pressures in a complex global environment.

Dragon Fly Official insight: U.S. crypto legislation — back in play 🇺🇸💼
Crypto watchers, take note: talks are restarting, with Democrats signaling renewed negotiations. A bill could clarify regulatory boundaries, reduce compliance uncertainty, and potentially unlock institutional participation. But the path to passage is far from guaranteed.
🔍 Structural & Market Analysis
Regulatory clarity matters: Uncertainty has been a major headwind for both DeFi and tokenized assets. A clear framework could boost on-chain adoption and institutional inflows.
Political dynamics: Even with Democrats leading, bipartisan support is required. Past attempts stalled over classification of tokens, taxation, and SEC vs. CFTC oversight. Expect amendments and compromises, not a smooth ride.
Market positioning: Short-term, anticipation alone may trigger volatility spikes in BTC, ETH, and regulated altcoins. Longer-term, adoption plays and tokenized ETFs may benefit if a framework favors innovation.
🧠 Dragon Fly’s view:
This is a structural opportunity disguised as regulatory risk. Traders and long-term holders alike should watch bill drafts, political negotiations, and market sentiment. The eventual passage could reshape U.S. crypto markets, but timing and amendments remain the key variables.
‍#CryptoRegulationNewProgress