GolemIsNotADog

2026年别再把预测市场当成“博彩换皮”
One sentence: It’s not gambling, but a new type of financial infrastructure
The difference between prediction markets and gambling platforms lies in:
🧾 Different pricing mechanisms: order book matching, market-based pricing ≠ bookmaker-set odds, built-in house-edge.
📊 Different value: Prediction markets can generate probability data that can be referenced by media, institutions, and hedging strategies, not just entertainment.
👥 Different participants: information arbitrageurs, macro traders, and institutions vs emotional gamblers.
⚖ Different regulation: regulated by fe

Become an old-fashioned person in 2026:
No AI writing

Lighter has not announced an airdrop date yet,
On Polymarket, the odds of an airdrop today are starting to plummet,
The probability of an airdrop on December 30th has already surpassed that of today,
But there is still no information indicating an airdrop tomorrow,
This is a desperate and reckless prediction,
This time, the Lighter incident may be a mockery of the saying "prediction markets reveal the truth,"
In the absence of participation from a few insiders,
The wisdom of the crowd is lacking

Will the specific airdrop date for Lighter experience a reversal?
Just 2 hours ago, the prediction on Polymarket that “Lighter will airdrop on December 30” increased from 13.3% to 23%.
At the same time, the probability of “Lighter will airdrop on December 29” (tomorrow) dropped to 60%, whereas on December 25, the probability was still 87%.
Previously, Lighter’s marketing lead @Pilla_eth stated that the airdrop would take place in 2025.
Lighter founder @vnovakovski also said it would happen “during this holiday,” but the specific date has never been disclosed...

How many guys have truly enjoyed the feeling of being chased by a girl?

Polymarket New Gameplay — Scanning the Early Market
Recently, I had a creative idea about how to play #Polymarket and hope to discuss it with everyone.
Everyone knows how to scan the closing market, but I want to reveal another way: scanning the early market.
Although Polymarket can predict the truth to some extent, at the moment an event just occurs,
the human brain has already quickly analyzed the event and made judgments about the probabilities of various outcomes.
Polymarket simply does not have the reaction speed of a human brain. Factors include the time to create and review a new predic

2025 Investment Return Despise Chain:
Gold and silver > Tech US stocks > Nasdaq > A-shares > Bitcoin

Pictures of sexual content are no longer allowed to be posted, and the domestic society is further suppressing sexual expression.

Polymarket copy trading has been quite popular recently, but with these kinds of Open Source projects, one must be careful, or else the Private Key could be lost.