HenriqueCen

"You can't beat the market with a diversified portfolio."
I keep hearing this. But my stock portfolio tells a different story.
Here's my portfolio (50-60 stocks) vs S&P 500.
Diversification isn't the enemy of alpha. Poor stock selection is.

The market is already full of smart people and algorithms; if you see what they see, you have no edge.
To beat the market, you have to diverge from it. You have to be right when the crowd is wrong.
Different + Better = Second-Level Thinking.

Who invested in this?
The Palantir $PLTR 3x leveraged ETF rose 28,000% in 3 years!

To win, you have to think differently.
In investing, there is a concept called "Second-Level Thinking." It is the difference between average returns and building crazy wealth.
First-level thinking is simplistic: "This company has a great product, I should buy it."
It is intuitive but because it’s obvious to everyone, there is no edge there.
Second-level thinking goes deeper and you need to ask uncomfortable questions:
"Everyone likes this product, but are expectations too high?"
"This news looks bad, but is the market reacting to noise is there a significant shift? what are people missing?"
If

Why most investors miss the big winners:
They lack SECOND-LEVEL thinking.
Level 1 Thinking
"This company has a cool product. AI is trendy. The stock will go up."
Everyone knows this. It’s already priced in. No significant upside.
Level 2 Thinking
"Everyone sees the cool product, everyone knows AI is trendy, but what else are they missing? Is the market selling off on short-term noise while ignoring long-term necessity?"
The goal is to find what the crowd has misunderstood. Be a contrarian.

The S&P 500 is too concentrated in the MAG7. Here's where I'm going.
The S&P 500 is now a dangerous bet on just SEVEN tech giants. As of Jan 2026, the MAG 7 is 34.5% of the entire index. This is an ALL-TIME HIGH level of concentration that beats even the dot-com bubble peak!
That’s why I’m rotating a big chunk (potentially >50%) of my SSO position into URST, the 2x leveraged EQUAL-WEIGHT S&P 500 ETF.
In URST:
- Every stock gets ~0.2% weight
- MAG7 drops from 34% → just 1.4%
- Real exposure to the other 493 companies in healthcare, industrials, financials, etc., which might perform better next

Investing in American defense stocks is investing in peace through strength.
Also, having some defense stocks, such as $AVAV and $KTOS, is a great insurance for times of international tension. $NU is also performing well as a LATAM bank.

Remember:
"The early bird gets the worm..."
But also:
"The second mouse gets the cheese."
Let narratives unfold.
Sometimes, being too early is just like being wrong.

Nike $NKE stock is up after Maduro's tracksuit sold out. Thanks Trump 🫡