The Federal Reserve's decision to restart rate cuts would be a double-edged sword for the crypto market.

Let's start with the good news: the market has already priced in some of the rate cut expectations, so BTC might see a short-term surge, targeting the pressure level at $94,000. More importantly, if the Fed also signals an expansion of its balance sheet, it would directly inject liquidity into the market. Currently, the system's leverage ratio has dropped from 10% to 4-5%, and in this healthy low-leverage environment, capital inflow is what truly drives gains.

But don't get too optimistic. If Powell's speech leans hawkish, such as hinting at a possible pause in rate cuts, the bulls could be in danger—if BTC drops below $91,000, the liquidation of long positions alone could trigger a sell-off pressure of $972 million. So, this move can be viewed as short-term entertainment; chasing after the top requires caution. The old tactic of "buying the expectation and selling the fact" has never failed in the crypto world.