Will the alt season explode in 4 to 6 months? 155 ETFs may trigger the next round of parabolic pump.

Crypto analyst @Ashcryptoreal predicts that the cryptocurrency market is preparing for a parabolic “alt season” in the next four to six months. This optimistic expectation is based on the synchronous development of several macroeconomic factors: expansion of the M2 Money Supply, the Fed potentially shifting to quantitative easing, and an anticipated 3 to 4 rate cuts in the next six months. Additionally, after the gold market capitalization surpasses $30 trillion, it could trigger capital rotation, and the approval of 155 altcoin ETF applications could have a market impact comparable to Bitcoin ETF. The analyst emphasizes that the price of Ether must break and hold above $5,000 to officially kick off a true alt season.

Macro Narrative Shift: Creating Liquidity Conditions for Alt Season

Crypto analyst @Ashcryptoreal pointed out in a post on October 26 that despite the current panic sellers exiting the market, the total market capitalization of crypto assets remains in a bullish trend, and a potential parabolic rise is expected in the next 4 to 6 months. This judgment is backed by several macro catalysts that are forming.

Fed policy shift: Quantitative easing and interest rate cut expectations

Historically, the expansion of M2 Money Supply has been highly correlated with the increase in liquidity flowing into risk assets such as Crypto Assets. More importantly, the market expects the Fed to end quantitative tightening and may potentially shift to quantitative easing.

• Rate cuts stimulate investment: It is expected that there will be 3 to 4 rate cuts in the next six months. Lower borrowing costs typically encourage institutional investment to flow into the crypto market.
• Market Optimism: The US stock market is currently at an all-time high, indicating a broader market optimism, which lays the foundation for the liquidity shift towards risk assets.

The capital rotation effect between gold and Bitcoin

The market capitalization of gold has reached 30 trillion dollars, and analysts believe this could be the key to triggering capital rotation into Bitcoin.

• The baton of digital gold: Investors often view Bitcoin as a digital substitute for gold. In past market cycles, after gold reaches valuation peaks, Bitcoin often follows with a strong surge.

The Fundamental Reason for the Delay in Alt Season: Ethereum is the Benchmark

Despite Bitcoin rising from its bottom of $15,400 in November 2022 to $126,000, an increase of 8.5 times, most alts have failed to keep up with this surge. Only a few alts such as ONDO, FET, SUI, SOL, and BNB have reached new all-time highs.

Ethereum $5,000 breakthrough level

Ethereum reached a historical high range of $4,800 in the third quarter of 2025, setting a new high price of $4,900. Analysts generally believe that Ethereum must break through and stabilize above the $5,000 mark to truly kick off the alt season.

Reasons for the delay: Since 2025, investors have primarily focused on safe assets such as gold, bonds, and top stocks. Trade war tensions and tariff concerns have created uncertainty in the market, pushing liquidity towards low-risk assets rather than Crypto Assets.

Structural Benefits: 155 Altcoin ETF Applications Awaiting Launch

The current market environment is similar to the bull market patterns of 2017 and 2021: safe assets usually start first, building trader confidence, and then liquidity flows into higher-risk investments. The typical flow of funds is: Bitcoin → Ethereum → large-cap alts → low-cap alts.

ETF multiplier effect

In addition to the shift in macro policy, the favorable regulatory environment has also paved the way for alt season. Currently, there are 155 applications for altcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) awaiting approval, which are expected to make progress once the government shutdown issue is resolved.

History Repeats: If approved, the impact of these altcoin ETF products will replicate the effect of the Bitcoin ETF driving billions of dollars in inflows earlier in 2025. In particular, altcoins like Solana and Avalanche may experience price fluctuations of over 10% driven by positive news.

Market Signals and Operational Suggestions

Whale Confidence: On-chain data shows that the transfer of Bitcoin to long-term holding wallets has increased by 15%, indicating strong belief among large holders. The trading volume of Bitcoin on mainstream CEXs shows an increase in whale activity and accumulation patterns.

Ethereum Potential: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Ethereum is around 55, indicating neutral momentum with room for an upward breakout and is not in an overbought state. Market sentiment is turning towards greed.

Current operation suggestion: Bitcoin needs to break through the resistance level of 70,000 USD to confirm the start of the parabolic phase. Investors can pay attention to the support levels of Bitcoin at 60,000 USD and Ethereum at 2,500 USD, which may be ideal entry zones during market corrections.

Conclusion

Against the backdrop of macro liquidity about to return to risk assets and the possibility that the market capitalization of gold could trigger the next round of Bitcoin's rally, the potential approval of 155 altcoin ETF applications provides a strong structural catalyst for the outbreak of alt season. However, whether Ethereum can successfully break through the key psychological and technical barrier of $5,000 will be the final signal determining when this feast will begin. Investors should remain vigilant and pay attention to macroeconomic policies and the price dynamics of Ethereum.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. The crypto market is highly volatile, and investors should make decisions with caution.