Bull Market verdienen Geld nach dem unveränderlichen Standard: Zuerst Ihr eigenes Handelssystem aufbauen

In the financial market, it is crucial for investors to establish a trading system that suits them. With market changes, relying solely on intuition no longer guarantees stable profits. This article will explore the methods and evaluation indicators for designing an effective trading system, helping investors find a foothold in the complex market. This article is based on an article by 4Alpha Research, compiled and translated by PANews. (Background: Doubt about the end of the Bull Market in Verschlüsselung? Five key data have turned green lights.) There is no guaranteed profit-making trading system. In fact, a trading system is essentially an operating system, placed in a computer, which can be understood as a complete human-computer interaction system, where people make the computer work. From a biological perspective, it is similar to a conditioned reflex, that is, ‘When A signal appears, B action must be taken.’ The trading system is a comprehensive set of rules about entering the market, exiting, and the Stop-Loss and Gewinnmitnahme of buying and selling. There are many misunderstandings about trading systems. Some people think that the reason they cannot make a profit is due to the lack of their own trading system, and once they have a trading system, they can make a profit. Others believe that the reason they have not achieved excess returns is because their existing trading system is not excellent enough, so they need to find a better system. Some people firmly believe that there is a magical trading system in the world, and as long as they follow its operation, they can make a stable profit. Are these views true and trustworthy? First of all, it is clear that there is no ‘perpetual motion machine’ or ‘elixir of life’ in the world, and naturally there is no universal and permanently stable profit-making trading system. If such a system existed, smart people would have discovered and utilized it long ago. Secondly, even with an excellent trading system, it does not necessarily mean that stable profits can be achieved. An excellent trading system first requires the user to have strong execution power and be able to follow its instructions 100%. In addition, a good trading system is not necessarily suitable for everyone. Everyone needs to find a trading system that suits them, and this cannot be measured with standardized ‘good’ or ‘bad’. In order to find a trading system that suits oneself, it is necessary to correctly understand and position the role of the trading system. The trading system is similar to military strategic thinking. Completely following these strategic thinking may not guarantee victory in every battle, but it can at least ensure that there will be no disastrous defeat and leave follow-up opportunities. The trading system is at the strategic level, while the combination of ‘operational thinking’ and ‘operational strategy’ belongs to the tactical level, and the specific trading actions are the performance at the tactical level. By correctly understanding the role and limitations of the trading system, and finding a suitable system that integrates with one’s own characteristics, better results can be achieved in trading. So how do we evaluate an operating system? When evaluating a trading system, I believe that only one key indicator needs to be followed, which is the ‘profit-loss ratio.’ The so-called profit-loss ratio refers to the average profit divided by the average loss. For example, if you invest 1 million yuan and trade 10 times according to a certain operating system, with 4 profitable trades of 150,000 yuan, 250,000 yuan, 350,000 yuan, and 450,000 yuan respectively, and 6 losing trades of 100,000 yuan, 150,000 yuan, 100,000 yuan, 50,000 yuan, 70,000 yuan, and 200,000 yuan, the average profit at a profit is 300,000 yuan, and the average loss is 111,700 yuan, resulting in a profit-loss ratio of 30/11.17 ≈ 2.69. If you use this trading system for continuous trading, whether 100 times or 1000 times, according to a profit-loss ratio of 2.69, it is theoretically possible to achieve profits. A profit-loss ratio below 1 indicates a loss. However, in objective evaluation, we need to consider certain redundant factors. I believe that the profit-loss ratio should never be less than 2. Specifically: A profit-loss ratio of 3 can be considered as passing, that is, 70 points A profit-loss ratio of 4 can be considered as good, that is, 80 points A profit-loss ratio of 5 can be considered as excellent, that is, 90 points A trading system with a profit-loss ratio higher than 5 can be considered as full marks. It is worth noting that trading systems with a profit-loss ratio higher than 5 are very rare. I recommend that everyone calculate the profit-loss ratio of their long-term trading system (or trading rules) in order to better evaluate its effectiveness. What elements should be included in the design of an operating system? Before establishing an operating system, we should first ask ourselves, what is the purpose of investing? Is it to get rich overnight? Is it to steadily increase value? Or is it to increase value quickly? In addition, what is the expected rate of return? Is it 100% per year? Is it 100% per month? Is it 30% per year? Is it 30% per month? Is it 200% per year? Or is it 50% per year? These questions will greatly affect how we design our operating system. Furthermore, how do we tolerate risk, and what is our risk preference? Can we tolerate a large drawdown of over 30%? Can we tolerate a small drawdown of less than 20%? Can we only tolerate a slight drawdown of less than 5%? Or can we not tolerate any drawdown at all? These are several questions about risk that must be considered. If these questions are not clear, blindly establishing an operating system is not meaningful, at least not the most suitable for oneself. A perfect operating system should include the following seven elements: Cycle judgment: Understand the general trend of the market and judge the current market cycle (such as Bull Market, Bärenmarkt, volatile market, etc.) Operational thinking: Clearly define the basic concepts and strategies of operations, whether to pursue short-term quick entry and exit, or long-term holding Coin selection: Select potential stocks based on certain criteria and methods Timing selection: Determine the best timing for buying and selling Buying and selling rules: Establish clear buying and selling strategies, including entry and exit conditions Capital management: Reasonably allocate capital, avoid excessive concentration or dispersion, and ensure the efficiency and safety of capital use Risk control: Establish a risk management strategy, including Stop-Loss mechanism, Position control, etc., to control investment risks. By fully considering and integrating the above elements, a suitable operating system can be established in order to better achieve investment goals. Now let’s take a closer look. Cycle judgment Going with the trend is the first principle of investment. When the market is on the rise, the success rate of our various strategies, coin selection, and timing abilities will be significantly improved. Even if the strategy and timing ability are not perfect, it is still possible to make money from Swing-Trading in a rising market. And if the judgment of the market trend is stable, the psychology of holding will be more stable, and even dare to buy at the low point, thereby reducing the holding cost and maximizing profits. On the contrary, if there is no clear judgment on the market trend, the psychology of holding will be unstable, and it is easy to overreact due to slight fluctuations, leading to distorted operations. In addition, cycle judgment will provide important references for subsequent operations. In a Bull Market, all buying and selling operations must be heavy positions, and centralized; in a Bärenmarkt, all buying and selling operations must be light positions, and dispersed. Operational thinking Operational thinking can also be referred to as operational strategies in different market conditions, but this operational thinking can only be determined based on the judgment of the general market, so its accuracy still depends on the ability to judge the general market. Operational thinking is like planning for a battle, how long to fight, how large the battlefield is, these need to be set in advance. You cannot modify the battle plan while fighting, increase troops at will, or change the direction of the operation at will. Coin selection Especially in a Bull Market, the importance of coin selection is more prominent. If you want to achieve excess returns, you must carefully select the coins you hold, and in a Bull Market, you should try to avoid frequent…