#数字资产生态回暖 The Federal Reserve's "big test" arrives at 3 a.m.!

What is the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut? Can the crypto market leverage this opportunity to rebound?

At 3 a.m. Beijing time on December 11, the Federal Reserve's policy meeting decision will be announced—this is not only the last interest rate decision of the year but also a crucial moment that influences Bitcoin, global stock markets, and even financial liquidity.

CME Fed Funds Futures data show that the market has already priced in an 89.4% probability of a 25 basis point cut. Once confirmed, this will be the third consecutive rate cut this year, and the federal funds rate range will be lowered to 3.5%-3.75%. But for investors, "whether to cut rates" is no longer the focus. The real point of interest is whether the Fed will signal a "hawkish" stance along with the rate cut.

After all, the Fed just announced the end of its balance sheet reduction on December 1, and even hinted at possibly restarting balance sheet expansion in January next year, purchasing $40-45 billion in short-term government bonds each month. This shift in liquidity directly impacts the valuation expectations of crypto assets.

This meeting, investors need to pay close attention to two underlying signals:

**First: Will the dot plot revise down the rate cut expectations for next year?** If Fed officials jointly lower their forecasts for rate cuts next year, global asset pricing logic could adjust instantly, and liquidity expectations will cool significantly.

**Second: The wording of Powell's press conference.** The key is whether he will reinforce the stance that "future rate cuts will be more stringent." If hawkish statements appear, the market could experience significant short-term volatility. It is worth noting that dissent within the Fed has become public, and this vote may see opposition votes, with some committee members even advocating for a aggressive 50 basis point cut. Such divergence of views often amplifies market uncertainty.

**Liquidity tightening or easing determines short-term trends.** A rate cut does not mean guaranteed profits. If Powell insists on a tight monetary stance, even with balance sheet expansion, the short-term market may initially decline before rebounding; conversely, if his attitude softens, and liquidity expectations loosen, crypto assets like Bitcoin could see a rebound opportunity.

The question now facing investors is: Will this be a concrete hawkish rate cut? Or will Powell surprise the market? Should you hedge your positions in advance or wait until after the meeting to make decisions?