The latest FOMC dot plot has been released, and the signals it reveals are somewhat subtle—officials' views on the trajectory of interest rates by 2026 have significantly diverged.

Median expectations indicate: one rate cut in 2026, another in 2027, with no change in 2028. However, looking at the vote distribution, the picture becomes much more complex:

On the hawkish side, 3 members think rates should be raised once next year (one more than in September); 4 members support holding steady (down from 6 in September).

What about the dovish camp? 4 votes favor one rate cut, 4 support two cuts, and 2 believe there should be three cuts. The most aggressive calls for six cuts—this was not present in September. As for four cuts, the number has decreased from 2 to 1.

Behind this divergence, it actually reflects a tug-of-war among multiple factors such as economic data, inflation expectations, and the labor market. For the crypto market, marginal changes in rate cut expectations are often more crucial than absolute numbers—after all, liquidity conditions directly influence the pricing of risk assets.