The latest Federal Reserve dot plot has been released, with a noticeable divergence among 19 policymakers regarding the interest rate trajectory for 2026.

The hawkish camp has the upper hand: 7 officials directly voted "no rate cut," while 4 others support only a symbolic 25 basis point cut. In other words, more than half of the committee members are cautious about aggressive easing.

The centrist camp is relatively moderate: 4 believe a 50bp cut is appropriate, and 2 lean toward a 75bp reduction.

The dovish voices are scarce: only 1 official bets on a total cut of 100bp, and another more aggressive one supports a full 150 basis points cut.

This voting distribution reflects concerns within the Federal Reserve about inflation resilience and economic robustness — rate cut expectations are being re-priced, and the market must prepare for "higher for longer."