#数字资产生态回暖 $ETH The latest dot plot from the Federal Reserve appears to be dovish signals, but a closer look reveals the actual situation—only two interest rate cuts in 2026, another one in 2027, and no change in 2028. The market's previous expectation of a large easing? Gone. Along with that, the super cycle theory of Bitcoin mentioned by some has also become invalid.

These past two days, the Fed's $40 billion Treasury bond purchase operations have been seen by many as balance sheet expansion. In reality, it's far from that. This is called RMP tool operation, which is fundamentally different from QE (quantitative easing). QE is actively injecting liquidity into the market to stimulate; QT (quantitative tightening) is tightening liquidity; while RMP is a temporary "liquidity supplement"—the only goal is to maintain bank reserve adequacy, hedge against the end-of-year Treasury funds adjustment and tax payments period, not to inject additional funds into the market.

The Federal Reserve has already made it clear: before April 2026, the RMP scale will remain high to cope with the Treasury's new debt issuance; once seasonal disturbances subside, the bond purchase scale will rapidly decline. The real factors controlling the market liquidity trend are whether the SLR (Supplementary Leverage Ratio) rules are relaxed, whether banks are willing to expand their balance sheets, when the Treasury's TGA account will be replenished, and how quickly the Fed will reduce ON RRP (Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreement) operations.

The next two data points to watch are: the November non-farm employment data on December 16, and the November CPI data on December 18. If CPI does not rebound, the Fed's subsequent easing policy might have a chance; conversely, it would mean maintaining a tight balance.