#加密生态动态追踪 The new dot plot released by the Federal Reserve has already given a clear signal: only two rate cuts are planned for 2026, one in 2027, and only by 2028 will interest rates return to the so-called normal level. In other words, the long-term market expectation of a big wave of easing is basically hopeless. If you are still fantasizing that the Fed will open the faucet to rescue the market, now is the time to wake up.

Here, we also need to correct a particularly common misconception. Recently, the Fed’s action of purchasing 400 billion USD in Treasury bonds has been widely misunderstood as quantitative easing. Wrong. This is actually a repurchase operation—RMP (Overnight Reverse Repurchase). The goal is not to flood the market with liquidity, but because at the end of the year, bank system cash is tight, and the Fed comes out to rescue in a pinch, filling a gap.

To understand how big this difference is, we need to clarify three concepts. Quantitative easing (QE) is when the central bank continuously injects liquidity into the market; quantitative tightening (QT) is the opposite, constantly withdrawing liquidity; while repurchase operations (RMP) are about reclaiming money that has already been spent and temporarily exists within the financial system, which can be returned when needed. They are completely different.

Therefore, seeing news about "purchases" and getting excited is a big taboo. This is a routine technical stabilization measure, not a signal that easing policy has started. What truly reflects the actual liquidity condition of the market are deeper indicators—whether leverage ratios have eased, whether bank balance sheets can expand, whether there are actual fiscal subsidies, and whether the rules for overnight reverse repurchase will be adjusted.

Next, there are two sets of data that must be closely watched.

The first is the December Non-Farm Payroll report, especially the data from November. At that time, the federal government had a shutdown, which might lower employment growth figures, signaling potential impacts on the Fed’s subsequent policy.

The second is the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January next year. This is very critical. If, after the rate cut in October, inflation does not decline as the market expected and remains sticky, the Fed is likely to continue maintaining a tightening stance and won't easily shift course.

To put it simply, the current market environment is already very complex. Still hoping for a big wave of easing in 2026? Based on various signs, that’s just self-delusion. In reality, the Fed’s roadmap is right here, and data will continually verify the policy direction. Instead of daydreaming, it’s better to closely follow these key nodes and adjust your trading strategy based on actual data.