#美联储降息 The internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve over the pace of interest rate cuts have intensified. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee cast a dissenting vote this week, with a straightforward reason—inflation risks are still too high, and whether tariffs impact prices as a temporary shock or a long-term trend remains to be seen through data. The government shutdown in October and November delayed several key economic reports, making him more cautious about rash rate cuts in the near term.

Poulson described the labor market as "under pressure but not collapsing." She insists that the current monetary policy remains somewhat tight, although recent easing measures have provided some breathing room for the employment market.

The core disagreement between the two voting members centers on: if the economy is driven into a high-growth mode by the AI productivity wave, how should policy be adjusted? Conversely, what if inflation refuses to go away? This uncertainty is the real reason they remain cautious. Goolsbee still sees "significant room" for rates to decline substantially next year, but only if the data provides clear signals.