#美联储降息 The Federal Reserve just started cutting interest rates, and the US stock market immediately surged to near 50,000 points, while the crypto market is still spinning at a critical level. Looking at this trend, many people think it’s stable. Actually, not quite, because this week might be more刺激 than a roller coaster ride.

Where is the real variable? The Bank of Japan is about to shift toward raising interest rates. Many will wonder, does Japan’s rate hike or cut have anything to do with us? Actually, it’s a big deal.

In the past twenty years, the Japanese Yen has been in a negative interest rate environment. What does that mean? Borrow 100 yen from Japan, and in the end, you only need to repay 99 yen. This kind of treatment is a gift for large global institutions. Their strategy is: borrow yen at ultra-low interest rates from Japan, exchange for USD to trade US stocks, stash gold, buy bonds, or even allocate Bitcoin, and then convert back to yen to settle accounts after making profits. This arbitrage model has made big players like Warren Buffett and George Soros hugely profitable. Buffett’s famous saying "I love Japan" hides this logic behind it.

But in December last year, Japan suddenly shifted to positive interest rates. This is not a slight adjustment but an earthquake in the global financial system. Now it seems they will continue to raise rates, so what does this mean?

Those cheap funds borrowed from Japan are starting to increase in cost. As interest rates rise, these arbitrage funds will inevitably accelerate their flow back to Japan. When this force kicks in, a wave of passive sell-offs will occur globally—stocks, gold, crude oil, bonds, foreign exchange, and even crypto assets like Bitcoin will not escape. Short-term volatility will surely intensify, and a collective correction might even happen.

The upcoming scenario is: the US cuts rates and loosens liquidity on one side, while Japan raises rates and tightens on the other. The clash of these two forces is almost inevitable. A big storm is coming. Be mentally prepared; this week’s行情可能比预想的更诡异。