#加密生态动态追踪 The next Federal Reserve chairmanship has become a hot topic in the market. Trump openly favors former board member Kevin Waugh to take over the Fed, and the market’s betting odds are continuing to rise. If this person truly takes the position, the impact on the cryptocurrency market could be far greater than that of the current chair Powell.

His policy approach can be summarized in two strategies:

**Cutting interest rates and shrinking the balance sheet simultaneously.** On the surface, this is to stimulate the economy, but at the same time, it withdraws liquidity, which means the market’s imagined "cheap funds" might not be so cheap after all.

**Taking a very hard stance on inflation.** He believes inflation is caused by the Fed being too loose before, so once prices rise, there will be zero tolerance, and policy adjustments will be extremely rapid.

What does this mean for the crypto market?

In the short term, expectations of rate cuts might be speculated as positive, offering many opportunities for emotional rebounds. But in the long term, caution is needed — his hawkish stance and tendency to shrink the balance sheet mean liquidity will only tighten more and more, with a very high sensitivity to inflation data. The risk of sudden policy tightening is greater than you think.

**Practical operational advice:** Don’t follow the trend just because of "rate cuts." Leverage must be strictly controlled, and fluctuations during policy expectations swings can wipe out many traders. Also, keep an eye on on-chain stablecoin inflow and outflow data, as this is the real liquidity signal. During sensitive policy periods, focus on spot trading and keep contracts on the sidelines; being cautious is never wrong.