White House warns of insider trading risks, financial markets show unusual movements again, prediction platforms become new “storm eye”

10 April, in response to recent suspected insider trading activities on financial markets and prediction platforms, the White House Management Office issued a stern warning to all employees, requiring them never to use government confidential information for investments or bets. Behind this warning, some market participants have gained substantial profits through precise timing operations before Trump announced military decisions on Iran and Venezuela.
Especially on March 23, when Trump posted on social platform Truth Social announcing a pause in attacks on Iranian power plants, the market had already shown signs of abnormal movement. Just 15 minutes before Trump’s statement, a large volume of crude oil and stock futures contracts were traded in bulk. Particularly within two minutes at 6:49 a.m. New York time, the trading volume of Brent and WTI futures contracts surged sharply, with market sell-offs reaching 6 million barrels, compared to 700k barrels over the previous five trading days, a significant increase. After the statement was released, international oil prices immediately plummeted, while the stock market rose due to easing risk aversion.
Moreover, an increasing number of crypto prediction platforms (such as Polymarket) have also become the core of this storm. Anonymous accounts have precisely bet on Iran-related geopolitical events, earning hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits. This phenomenon has raised high alert among analysts, some payouts related to Middle East situations have been suspended, and users are engaged in heated discussions about the definition of “ceasefire.”
Not only that, even before the U.S. forcibly removed Venezuelan President Maduro, similar precise betting behaviors had already appeared on prediction platforms. These series of events are making regulators and market participants more vigilant, and issues of transparency and compliance in prediction markets urgently need to be addressed. #加密市场回升 #美伊停火协议谈判再生变故 #Canary提交现货PEPEET申请 #Meta推出AI模型MuseSpark