10.18 midday Silk Road The pancake experienced a short-term surge followed by a series of consecutive declines, forming a short-term downward channel, with the lows gradually decreasing, indicating weakness. The MACD on the hourly chart continues to stay below the zero line, with weakening upward momentum and significant resistance above, the trend is biased towards the downside, and we will first look for a reversal action during the day. Bing: Around 107600-108200, targeting 106500-106000. Two cakes: around 3950-3400, targeting 3850-3800#BTC

Ripple's $1 billion XRP treasury plan could redefine the long term price trajectory of the altcoin - - #cryptocurrency# #bitcoin# #altcoins#

Fed stops balance sheet reduction and starts cutting interest rates: three favourable information for the Chinese economy and a key window period. Fed Chairman Powell recently released key signals: there may be a halt to balance sheet reduction in the coming months, coupled with expectations of interest rate cuts. These two sets of signals indicating a shift in monetary policy not only affect the nerves of global markets but also have a deep connection with China's economic development, and the logic behind this deserves in-depth interpretation. First, it is necessary to clarify the core meaning of quantitative tightening. As an important tool for the Fed to regulate market liquidity, quantitative tightening essentially involves recovering funds from the market through operations such as not renewing the purchase of Treasury bonds upon maturity, which is equivalent to "draining water" from an overheating economy. Since the initiation of quantitative tightening in 2022 to curb high inflation, the Fed's balance sheet has decreased from a peak of $9 trillion to $7.8 trillion, and it is currently still recovering funds at a scale of $40 billion per month. This process can be described as "passive interest rate hikes," achieving the goal of suppressing economic overheating by raising long-term interest rates. The signal of stopping the balance sheet reduction is significant, marking the formal end of the U.S. monetary tightening cycle that has lasted for several years. Monetary policy will gradually shift towards neutrality and even easing. Previously, the Fed adopted a strategy of "parallel interest rate cuts and balance sheet reduction" to hedge against the easing effects brought by interest rate cuts through balance sheet reduction, avoiding a rebound in inflation. After stopping the balance sheet reduction, market liquidity will truly enter the "incremental era." This adjustment is not only a clear statement of the shift in monetary policy but also a proactive measure to prevent tightness in the money market and avoid a repeat of the liquidity crisis in 2019. For the Chinese economy, this is undoubtedly a set of clear Favourable Information signals that will release positive effects from three major dimensions: exchange rates, capital flows, and policy space. First, the increase in US dollar liquidity will directly lower the US dollar index, providing strong support for the RMB exchange rate. The latest data shows that the RMB's central parity against the US dollar has risen to around 7.10, reaching a new high since November 2023; second, the attractiveness of US dollar assets will weaken as interest rates decline, leading to a shift in the direction of international capital allocation. The A-share market is expected to see more foreign capital inflows, effectively alleviating market liquidity pressure; third, the interest rate differential between China and the US will narrow, and the People's Bank of China will further expand the operational space for lowering reserve requirements and interest rates under the "self-centered" monetary policy framework, providing more flexible policy tools to stabilize economic growth. It should be noted that the Fed's policy adjustments still adhere to the "data dependence" principle. The game between the current sticky inflation and economic weakness in the United States has not yet ended, and there remains uncertainty in the pace of policy shift. For China, this is both an opportunity window brought by the external environment and a key period to solidify its own development resilience—how to transform external liquidity Favourable Information into endogenous economic motivation, the core still lies in boosting domestic demand, stimulating market vitality, and firmly grasping the initiative in development by honing "internal skills".